模型驱动的危机事件快速建模与分析方法  

Model-driven rapid modeling and analysis methodology for crisis incidents

作　　者：李明浩[1] 杨克巍[1] 徐建国[1] 谭跃进[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2016年第9期2055-2064,共10页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71501182;71571185)资助课题

摘　　要：以2015年底俄土战机冲突事件为例,建立了基于模型驱动方法的快速建模与仿真分析框架,为类似军事冲突及争端事件应急判断提供快速建模与决策分析支持。通过场景建模、可执行逻辑分析和可视化仿真技术分别对危机事件进行静态结构建模、动态行为分析以及场景仿真验证。同时,利用具有自主知识产权的支持快速元模型定制的多视图建模工具ModelLink,与第三方分析与仿真工具集成,形成了以ModelLink为输入的跨平台模型自动生成、分析与互操作的分析链路,支持快速参数变更、直观可视化行为调整的敏捷响应。面向俄土战机事件,利用俄土双方及第三方关于事件细节的开源信息,构建了两种基本场景模型,通过对比不同方案的可执行逻辑分析以及仿真过程参数分析结果,校验了双方在事件声明中细节的合理性与真实性,同时支持后续不断补充开源信息后的模型调整与快速结论生成,具有很好的实用性。Focused on the Russian-Turkish plane incident at the end 2015, a rapid modeling and simulationanalysis framework is established based on the model-driven methodology. which can provide rapid modeling anddecision analysis support for the emergency judgement of similar military confrontation and disputes. More specifically,scenario modeling, executable logical analysis, and visualized simulation technologies are employed forstatic architecture modeling, dynamic behavior analysis, and simulation validation. Meanwhile, ModelLink, aself-developed rapid meta-model customized multi-view modeling tool, integrated with other third-party analysisand simulation software packages forms a tool-cross model generation, analysis. and interoperation chain. It receivesthe input froms ModelLink, and supports the quick model change and response. For the Russian-Turkishplane incident, open-source information from Russian, Turkish and others is first used to build two basic scenariomodels. Then, the comparison on analysis results of different models verifies the rationality and reality ofthe details of both sides^ statements. Moreover, the foregoing framework also facilitates the model modificationand output generation with regard to the information update.

关 键 词：危机事件 模型驱动 元模型 快速建模与分析 可执行模型 STK仿真 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学]