铜川市降水变化及趋势预测分析  

Analysis of precipitation variation and trend forecast in Tongchuan

作　　者：徐盼盼[1] 王海科[1] 钱会[1] 李亚斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2016年第3期82-86,90,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301084)

摘　　要：基于铜川气象站1961-2013年的逐月降水数据,主要利用Morlet小波法和Mann-Kendall检验法对铜川市的降水变化和趋势预测进行分析。结果表明:年降水变化呈减少的趋势,且年降水量的减少主要集中在春季和秋季;而夏季和冬季的降水量呈增加的趋势;年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季降水的典型突变年份分别为1986、1983、1985、1983、1987年,表明在20世纪90年代降水发生突变;年降水量和季节降水量都存在多时间尺度的丰枯变化。在2013年以后,年降水进入偏少期,春季、秋季降水进入强烈的偏少期,而夏季和冬季降水进入偏多期。年降水和季节降水均存在10年左右的主变化周期。Based on the data of monthly precipitation in Tongchuan meteorology station from 1961 to 2013 ,the paper mainly used the main methods of Morlet wavelet and Kendall- Mann test to analyze the precipitation variation and trend forecast in Tongehuan. The conclusions are as follows the annual precipi- tation presents decreasing trend, and is concentrated in the spring and autumn. However, the precipitation showed an increasing trend in summer and winter;the typical years of abrupt change of precipitation in the whole year , spring, summer, autumn and winter is 1986, 1983, 1985,1983 and 1987 respectively, which indicated that precipitation in 1990s happened abrup ; all of annual and seasonal precipitation took place wet and dry variations of multiple time scales. After 2013, the annual precipitation entered the peri- od of too less, and it entered an obviously less - than - normal period in spring and autumn. While for summer and winter, the precipitation can be more. There is a main change cycle of 10 years in both annu- al and seasonal precipitation.

关 键 词：降水变化 趋势预测 Morlet小波法 MANN-KENDALL检验 铜川 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]