海河流域农业干旱演变情势分析  

Analysis of evoluation of agricultural drought in Haihe River Basin

作　　者：严小林[1,2,3] 张建云[1,2,3] 鲍振鑫[1,2,3] 王国庆[1,2,3] 王小军[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2016年第3期221-225,共5页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41401023;41330854;41371063);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC21B01;2012BAC19B03)

摘　　要：以受旱率、成灾率和粮食减产率3个指标,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法,分析了海河流域1949-2000年农业干旱的历史演变情势。结果表明:海河流域的农业干旱呈现出显著的增加趋势,达到了1%的显著性水平。其中,受旱率、成灾率和粮食减产率的增加速率分别为4.4%/10 a,2.4%/10 a和0.77%/10 a。总体而言,1980年是海河流域农业干旱的突变点。降水减少和温度上升是流域干旱加剧的重要原因。The paper used Mann - Kendallg trend test technique to analyze the situation of historical ev- oluation of agricultural drought in the Haihe River basin from 1949 to 2000 by use of three indexes such as drought, disaster and food production rate. The results indicated that there is a significant increasing trend for agricultural drought, and achieves significant level of 1%. The increasing rate of drought, disas- ter and grain reduction are 4.4% , 2.4% and 0.77% per 10 years respectively. The breakpoint of agri- cultural drought in the Haihe River basin is 1980. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of tem- perature are the vital reason for intensifying basin drought .

关 键 词：农业干旱 演变趋势 海河流域 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]