分析师的现金流预测有用吗——基于信息供给的视角  

Is Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Useful:From the View of Information Supply

作　　者：王菊仙[1] 王玉涛[2] 鲁桂华[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学嘉华学院 [2]中央财经大学会计学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2016年第7期78-94,共17页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号71102124)的资助

摘　　要：文章考察了证券分析师现金流预测行为对盈余预测质量的影响。研究发现,相对于没有现金流预测的公司,有预测的公司其盈余预测质量更高;现金流预测的次数越多,盈余预测质量越高;以上关系在盈余波动大、经营活动现金流波动大的公司更加明显。这说明我国分析师提供现金流预测信息的确有用,能够帮助分析师改善其盈余预测质量。文章的发现具有重要的实践价值,能够帮助投资者了解分析师现金流预测对盈余预测的影响,从而更有效地利用证券分析师报告进行决策。This paper examines the effects of analysts＇ cash flow forecasts on their earnings forecasts and its conditions. This paper finds that the quality of earnings forecasts with cash flow forecasts is higher than that without cash flow forecasts. The more analysts＇ cash flow forecasts in the past, the higher quality of earnings forecasts. The relationship between analysts＇ cash flow forecasts and earnings forecasts quality is more pronouneecl in firms with higher earnings volatility or operating cash flow volatility. These results demonstrate that analysts make cash flow forecasts to firms with higher earnings volatility or more difficult to forecast in order to improve the forecast quality. This paper can help investors better understand the impact of analysts＇ cash flow forecasts to earnings forecast and use the analysts＇ reports more effectively.

关 键 词：分析师预测 现金流预测 盈余预测准确度 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]