上海合作组织金融一体化的潜在福利收益研究  

Research on Potential Welfare Gains from Financial Integration of the SCO

作　　者：张恒龙[1] 袁路芳 

机构地区：[1]上海大学上海合作组织公共外交研究院经济学院 [2]南京银行苏州分行

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2016年第8期79-86,136,共8页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：上海合作组织自开展区域金融合作以来取得了一系列明显进展,但相比于贸易领域,上海合作组织在金融领域的合作仍然比较缓慢,金融合作面临着诸多挑战。文章基于消费风险分担理论,通过将福利收益表示为永久可贸易商品消费的增加百分比,测算了上合组织在实现完全金融一体化情况下成员国的潜在福利收益情况,计算结果表明,实现完全金融一体化能够为上合组织所有成员国带来较大的福利收益,且上合组织成员国中中亚国家的福利收益大于俄罗斯,俄罗斯大于中国。测算结果表明上合组织成员国之间应该加强区域金融合作,进而推进上合组织金融一体化。之后,文章进一步对目前阻碍上合组织金融合作深入推进的主要因素进行分析,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。Although the SCO has made series of notable progressions since starting collaboration in the financial area,they are slow in comparison with those in trade areas,and the SCO's financial collaboration confronts many challenges. Based on the theory of consumption risk sharing,by expressing welfare benefits as a percentage increase in permanent consumption of tradable goods,we estimate the potential benefits of the member states under complete financial integration of the SCO's. The results show that complete financial integration can bring all the SCO member states large welfare gains,of which gains from the Central Asian countries are more than that from Russia. Calculation results examine that it is right to strengthen regional financial cooperation among the SCO member states,thus promoting the SCO financial integration. Thereafter,we analyze the main factors currently hindering the SCO to further financial cooperation.

关 键 词：上海合作组织 金融一体化 福利收益 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]