基于GIS的冬小麦干旱灾害风险分析及评价——以四川省冬麦区为例  

GIS-Based Research on Drought Disaster of Winter Wheat Risk Zoning——A Case Study of Winter Wheat Region in Sichuan

作　　者：张菡[1,2] 李金建[1,2] 郑昊[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [2]四川省农业气象中心,成都610072 [3]四川省气象服务中心,成都610072

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第8期57-63,共7页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41405077)

摘　　要：以四川地区冬小麦干旱灾害为例,利用气象数据、产量数据、地理信息数据以及农业经济等数据,在小麦作物气候适应性分区的基础上,选取灾害强度、地形、河网、作物种植分布等要素作为风险因子,应用层次分析法建立灾害风险区划指标体系,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和抗灾能力4个方面进行分析,建立适用于四川省冬小麦干旱灾害的综合风险区划模型并计算风险指数,借此将四川地区划分为由高至低的5个风险等级区域.结果表明,针对冬小麦的四川地区干旱灾害风险水平具有显著的地域分布差异,高风险和较高风险区主要集中在四川盆地中部及西部的浅丘和中高丘陵区,此外受季节性干旱气候控制的攀西农区风险水平也较高.Taking the winter wheat-drought disaster of Sichuan Province as an example, based on the his torical climate date, yield data, 1 ： 50000 resolution DEM data and agricultural economy data, four factors have been chosen to study the relationship between risk zoning and the drought disaster, including the dan ger of disaster-causing, the disaster-developing environment sensitivity, the hazard bearing body vulnera bility and the capacity of resisting disasters which are considered playing significant roles in the formation and hazard of disaster. After the climate adaptability has been taken into account in analyzing and calculat- ing, some mathematics models have been developed to carry out the synthetic disaster risk zoning model. Furthermore, with the help of GIS technology and analytic hierarchy process, the drought disaster risk in- dex of Sichuan Province is clear. Connected with the practical situation locally, Sichuan Province was di- vided into five grades by using the risk index. The results of risks zoning indicate that the region with high risk and mid-high risk is mainly in the most hilly areas of west basin and the middle basin. Meanwhile, the west of Panzhihua that is controlled by seasonal drought also belongs to the high grade.

关 键 词：气候适应性 区划 风险 层次分析法 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S512[农业科学—作物学]