我国保险周期与经济周期波动形态对比研究  

A Comparative Study on Insurance Cycle and Economic Cycle in China

作　　者：张玉春[1] 王雅婷[2] 万里虹[3] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学统计学院,北京100070 [2]首都经济贸易大学金融学院,北京100070 [3]中国人寿保险股份有限公司,北京100033

出　　处：《保险研究》2016年第6期40-47,共8页Insurance Studies

基　　金：中国保监会2014重点课题(2014BJ04);首都经济贸易大学2013青年拔尖人才培育计划

摘　　要：通过对比我国保险周期与经济周期波动图发现,保险周期并不是严格顺经济周期持续,而是在总体上顺周期特征下,保持保险业市场波动的自身特点,其波动频率及波动幅度与经济周期波动具有显著差异。这表明我国保险市场波动既受到宏观经济环境的影响,也受到保险业自身产业政策的显著影响。此外,寿险与产险两大市场的波动性受宏观经济指标的影响并不一致,保险监管部门应始终监测并充分考虑分险种市场的不同波动特征,以提高逆周期监管的有效性。Comparing the curves of insurance cycle and economic cycle in China, we found that, while the insurance cycle is generally pro-cyclical with the economic cycle,it is not an absolute procyclieality. The insurance cycle has its own characteristics specific for the insurance market. Especially, its fluctuation frequency and width is significantly different with the economic cycle. This indicates that insurance market fluctuations are influenced not only by macro-economic environment but also by insurance industry policies. In addition, the macro-economic factors have different impacts on the life insurance sector and the property and casualty insurance sector. The regulator should monitor the different characteristics of fluctuations of different insurance markets in order to enhance the effectiveness of the counter-cyclical regulation measures.

关 键 词：保险周期 经济周期 波动形态 

分 类 号：F840.3[经济管理—保险]