风险偏好视角下工程项目风险分担研究  

Research on Risk Allocation in the Construction Project under the Risk Preferences Perspective

作　　者：刘俊颖[1] 闫鹏[1] 尹贻林[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2016年第16期96-101,共6页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71202084)

摘　　要：合理的风险分担机制能够提高工程项目管理绩效,然而,目前的风险分担机制主要以"理性人"为假设,忽略了对于项目参与方风险偏好的关注。旨在建立嵌入合同双方风险偏好的风险分担决策方法,通过文献研究,构建了风险分担评价指标体系,并结合模糊集理论和TOPSIS技术,设计了风险分担定量模型。在该方法中,承包商风险偏好包含在评价指标体系中,业主风险偏好通过派生的三角模糊数予以表示。最后,通过实证案例对该方法的实用性和有效性进行了验证,研究成果为实现工程项目合理风险分担提供了理论支持。Proper risk allocation can improve project management performance. However, previous studies on the risk allocation are mostly based on the hypothesis of ＂rational man＂, and overlook risk preferences of project participants. The objective of this research is to formulate a decision method in risk allocation with considering risk preferences of two contracting parties. An evaluation index system of risk allocation is built based on the literature research, and a quantitative risk allocation model is developed by applying in combination with the Fuzzy Theory and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution （TOPSIS）. In this method, the contractor＇s risk preference is included in evaluation index sys- tem, and the client＇s risk preference is represented by the derived triangular fuzzy number. At last, an empirical case is used to show the practicability and validity of this method. Results of this research outcome will provide theoretical sup- port to achieve a proper risk allocation in construction project.

关 键 词：工程项目 风险分担 风险偏好 模糊TOPSIS法 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]