投入产出模型下新疆畜牧业产业关联动态变化分析  

Analysis on Dynamic Change of the Industrial Correlation of Xinjiang Livestock Husbandry Based on the Input-output Model

作　　者：谢艳锋 朱美玲[1] 阿依夏木[2] 马永仁[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆畜牧科学院畜牧业经济与信息研究所,乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2016年第7期1364-1372,共9页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区公益性科研项目"基于养殖户视角的新疆肉羊专业化生产服务需求分析"(KY2015013);新疆人文社科重点研究基地干旱区农村发展研究中心项目"新疆畜牧业专业合作组织模式与政策研究"(XJEDU030114Y01)~~

摘　　要：【目的】明确新疆畜牧业对新疆各产业关联特征及变化趋势,为制定畜牧业发展政策提供依据。【方法】基于投入产出模型理论,以新疆2007年和2012年投入产出表为依据,分析新疆畜牧业后向产业关联、中间需求率、中间投入率、前向产业关联的动态变化。【结果】畜牧业产业链延伸能有效促进附加值率提升,而附加值提升能有效促进畜牧业对自身投资增加,从而促进畜牧业发展;畜牧业对农业的拉动作用下降13个百分点,畜牧业对饲料加工业消耗系数上升2.3倍,部分饲养方式由放牧型转变为舍饲型。【结论】新疆畜牧业发展关键在于延伸畜牧业产业链、提高畜牧业附加值,未来发展过程中需加大新疆畜牧业投入以发挥产业拉动效果及保护天然草场。【Objective】To clarify the characteristics and trends of animal husbandry industry in Xinjiang,to lay the foundation for further research and to provide the basis for the government to formulate the policy of animal husbandry development.【Method】Based on input- output model theory this paper comparatively analyzed the dynamic change of backward correlation,intermediate inputs and intermediate demand,forward correlation of livestock husbandry in Xinjiang by using Xinjiang 2007 and 2012 input- output tables.【Result】Industry chain extending of livestock husbandry in Xinjiang could efficiently promote the value added rate,while the value added increasing was beneficial to the promotion of livestock husbandry to increase the investment so that to promote the livestock husbandry development; The effects of livestock on agriculture dropped by 13% while the consumption coefficient of livestock husbandry on the feed processing industry was increased by about 2. 3 times,which indicated that part of rearing way is changing into feeding type.【Conclusion】The key of development of livestock husbandry in Xinjiang is to extend the industrial chain,increase its added value and increase investment in livestock industry in Xinjiang so as to play an industry- led effects and protection of natural grassland.

关 键 词：产业关联 畜牧业 投入产出 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济] S8-05[农业科学—畜牧兽医]