违法停车阶梯式处罚强度模型研究  

Research on Step Punishment Intensity Model of Illegal Parking

作　　者：蒋贤才[1] 曾永松[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090 [2]中国城市规划设计研究院西部分院,重庆401121

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2016年第7期124-133,共10页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(HIT.NSRIF.2012061)

摘　　要：为了改善中国道路交通违法单一制处罚机制抑制成效差的问题,提出了一种效率与成本补偿的Pareto改进——交通违法阶梯式处罚机制。通过引入罚金弹性概念,分析了驾驶人面对阶梯式处罚机制时在违法次数和罚金总额上的响应;借用经济学上的供求理论和边际效应,构建了阶梯式处罚强度模型,并采用模式搜索法建立了其求解算法。以牡丹江市区违法停车为例,标定了阶梯式处罚强度模型中的罚金弹性、违法概率密度函数和各阶阶位违法次数等参数,求解得到了违法停车的各阶罚金,并对其实施后的预期成效进行了评估。结果表明:在实施阶梯式处罚后,3阶、4阶违法驾驶人的违法停车次数分别减少了9.58%和21.52%,说明阶梯式处罚机制对高频率违法驾驶人具有很强的抑制作用;通过调整各阶阶位覆盖率的范围和加大各阶罚金的差距,可显著降低交通违法总频次,抑制效果更明显。In order to improve the poor deterrent effect of unitary punishment mechanism on road traffic violation in China,traffic step punishment mechanism which belonged to a Pareto improvement of efficiency and cost recovery was proposed.By introducing the concept of fine elasticity,the drivers＇ responses to the amount of illegal times and total fines when they faced the step punishment mechanism were analyzed,then the step punishment intensity model was established by the theory of supply and demand and marginal effect in economics,and the pattern search method was used to solve the model.Taking the illegal parking in Mudanjiang city as an example,parameters including fine flexibility,probability density function of illegal parking and illegal times in steps in the model were conducted.Then the fines in steps of illegal parking were ascertained,and the expected effects were assessed after step punishment mechanism was implemented.The results show that the total illegal parking times of the third step illegal drivers and the fourth step illegal drivers are reduced by 9.58% and 21.52% respectively after the implementation of step punishment mechanism,indicating that the mechanism has very strong inhibition effect on the drivers with high frequent illegal behaviors.By adjusting the ranges ofsteps＇ coverage rates and increasing the fine difference of each step,the total traffic violation times decrease more obviously.

关 键 词：交通工程 违法停车 阶梯式处罚强度模型 供求理论与边际效应 模式搜索法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]