“债务-通缩”风险与货币政策财政政策协调  

“Debt-Deflation”Risks and Coordination between Monetary and Fiscal Policies

作　　者：陈小亮[1] 马啸[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836 [2]美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校

出　　处：《经济研究》2016年第8期28-42,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“利率市场化背景下中国货币政策框架的转型研究”(15XNI006)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在高债务和通缩并存的背景下,中国有必要采取措施应对"债务-通缩"风险。美国和日本的经验表明,单独使用货币政策或财政政策(单一宽松)应对"债务-通缩"所需的政策力度较大,而且容易陷入政策不可持续的困境。本文通过构建含有高债务和通缩特征的DSGE模型,并对货币政策和财政政策进行"中国化"修正,研究发现:货币政策与财政政策协调(双宽松)可以为财政政策创造空间并为货币政策节省空间,增强政策可持续性。这是因为,货币政策的"再通胀"效应有助于减轻政府实际债务负担和融资成本,为财政政策创造新空间。而且,积极财政政策同样能产生一定的"再通胀"效应,这会减轻货币政策为实现"再通胀"而需要宽松的力度,从而为货币政策节省空间。有鉴于此,中国应该加强财政货币政策协调以避免经济陷入"债务-通缩"陷阱。Confronted with the coexistence of heavy debt and deflation, China shall take action to safeguard ＂ debt- deflation＂ risk. Experience from the US and Japan reveals that when solely used to stabilize aggregate demand during ＂debt-deflation＂ cycles, fiscal or monetary policy has to be intense and could easily become unsustainable. By constructing a DSGE model involving features of heavy debt and deflation as well as fiscal and monetary policy that conforms to China, this paper shows that policy interactions can ameliorate the sustainability of both policies and improve the government＇s ability to resolve ＂debt-deflation＂ cycles. The ＂reflation＂ effect of monetary policy can cut down real debt and financing costs of the government, thus allowing for room of fiscal expansion. Meanwhile, active fiscal policy will also exert the ＂reflation＂ effect which in turn lowers the magnitude of monetary policy needed to accomplish adequate ＂ reflation＂. Therefore, Chinese government should strengthen monetary-fiscal policy interactions to prevent the economy from being stuck in ＂debt-deflation＂ cycles.

关 键 词：债务-通缩 货币政策 财政政策 政策协调DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F822.0