TPP对中国经济的影响及对策分析——基于亚太生产网络的分析视角  

The impact of TPP on China's economy and its countermeasures——A perspective based on the Asia Pacific production network

作　　者：李大伟[1] 金瑞庭[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会对外经济研究所

出　　处：《全球化》2016年第8期53-63,共11页Globalization

摘　　要：目前,亚太地区已经形成彼此存在一定竞争关系的东亚和北美两大生产网络。中国目前正处在从东亚生产网络的中低端向中高端跃升的过程中,和东盟、日、韩等经济体的竞争将不断加剧。分析表明,在短期内,TPP对中国所产生的贸易投资转移效应并不大,且相对集中于纺织等劳动密集型行业;但在中长期内,随着TPP的不断扩容和其成员国非关税壁垒的不断消除,有可能导致中国被亚太生产网络边缘化。中国应在积极推动"一带一路"战略、加快推进RCEP、中日韩FTA等自贸区建设的同时,在准备充分的前提下择机加入TPP。At present,the Asia Pacific region has formed two production networks of East Asia and North America which complete with each others.China is now in the process of rising from the low-end to high-end production network in East Asia,with increasing competition with ASEAN,Japan,Korea and other economies.Analysis shows that in the short term,the trade and investment diversion effect due to TPP on China's economy is not big,and relatively concentrated in the textile and other labor-intensive industries.However,in the long term,the continued expansion of the TPP and the continued elimination of tariff barriers among its member states may lead to China being marginalized by the Asia Pacific production network.China should actively promote the'Belt and Road'strategy,accelerate RCEP,FTA with Japan and South Korea;at the same time,in the premise of full preparation China should find a chance to join TPP.

关 键 词：TPP 亚太生产网络 贸易投资 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F124[经济管理—产业经济]