务工与务农行为选择比较研究:来自村庄的证据  

A comparative study on behavior choice of migrant working or farming: Evidence from village

作　　者：冯其云[1,2] 姜振煜 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学商学院,山东济南250014 [2]山东师范大学地理与环境学院博士后流动站,山东济南250014

出　　处：《重庆大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第4期26-41,共16页Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：山东师范大学青年教师科研项目(人文社会科学类)"微观视角下中国贸易开放影响性别工资差距的机制;效应与政策研究"(14SQR016)

摘　　要：城镇化、工业化冲击之下,传统农民获取收入的过程中有了更多选择,在其所能掌控范围内的一项重要事务即为选择从事农业生产还是远离农业。不同地域、不同地理和自然禀赋、不同发展阶段的农村地区时序变迁差异巨大。借助北方地区45个农户跨时5年(2008-2014年)的家庭微观面板数据,依据调研家庭特征设定行为选择和收入获取联立方程,模型估计方法有Heckman两步法和内生转换模型(ETM),依据地理特征构造工具变量以消除内生性难题。结果发现,教育水平的高低是务工与务农两难选择的关键决定因子,受教育水平越高的家庭成员越倾向于外出务工;无论是选择务工还是务农,预期所能够获得收入的影响都极为显著;随着农民务农收入水平的提高、农业补贴力度加大、对农业补贴政策预知能力提升,农民越来越不愿意离开土地。因此,重视农业、扶持农村、关注农民的有利政策或不利因素都可能起反作用,设计和制定政策时应谨防逆向选择问题的出现。在注重加强中国农业支持政策对农民生产和生活的影响与促进的同时,应提高农村教育质量,强化农民素质培训,加大农村基础设施建设力度,加快农村保障体系完善进程。Under the impact of urbanization and industrialization, there are more choices in the process of traditional farmers＇ access to income, in which an important business can be controlled within the scope of the choice of agricultural production or staying away from agriculture. It is a huge difference in regions, geographical and natural endowments, stages of development of the rural areas, for the judgment to start the demonstration. By using 45 rural households panel database from the year 2008 to 2014, we construct the equation of rural labor force behavior choice and the equation of earnings obtainment, and analyze survey data by using the Heckman two-step selection model and endogenous switching model. By constructing instrument variable in term of geographic characteristics, we efficiently tackle the problem of endogeneity in the regressions. The results show that the education level is the key determining factor for migrant working and farming, and the higher level of education, the more likely the family members are inclined to migrant working. The expected income has shown a significant positive effect on choice of whether migrant working or farming. With the improvement of farming income level, strengthening agricultural subsidies and enhancement foreseeing ability of agricultural subsidy policy, farmers are increasingly reluctant to leave the land. Therefore, it is likely to be counterproductive when we attach great importance to agriculture, rural support and favorable policies to the farmers or unfavorable factors, so we should be wary of adverse selection problem in policies decisions. In attention to strengthening China＇ s agricultural support policy impact and promotion on farmers＇ production and life, we also should improve the quality of rural education, strengthen farmers＇ quality training, strengthen the rural infrastructure construction and accelerate the process of rural security system.

关 键 词：行为选择 自选择 农业政策 教育 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]