厄瓜多尔M_S≥6.8级地震时空对称性及趋势判断  

Space-time Symmetry and Tendency Judgement for Earthquakes with M_S≥6.8 in Ecuador

作　　者：高新甜 延军平[1] 董婕[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062

出　　处：《华南地震》2016年第2期41-49,共9页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"西部重大灾害时空规律的统计研究"1202050208(655278)

摘　　要：在全球化的背景下,重大自然灾害发生的频率不断加快,其危害对人们的生活造成了重大的威胁。地震灾害是重大自然灾害之一,其发生的频率虽然不高,但造成的人员伤亡和经济损失巨大。对地震进行趋势判断,其理论和现实意义重大。从时间和空间的角度对厄瓜多尔近一个世纪M_S≥6.8级地震数据进行了分析,利用蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系加强对时间对称性的分析,再经震源的经纬度迁移和空间迁移规律,判断得出,厄瓜多尔时间上在2015和2016年的信号较强,空间上在79°~81°W,1°N^1°S之间有发生M_S≥6.8级地震的可能。可为地震灾害的趋势判断研究提供一定的参考,为后续研究工作提供一些启示。Under the background of globalization, the frequency of the major natural disasters is accelerating,with the major threat following. Earthquake is one of the major natural disasters. Although earthquake happened with a low frequency, the economic losses and casualties caused by earthquake are huge. It will be of great significance in reality and theory to do study on earthquake tendency. This paper analyzes the seismic data about M_S≥6.8 nearly a century of Ecuador from the viewpoint of time and space, and further does the time symmetry analysis by using the butterfly structure and commensurability structure system and the law of the hypocenter migration about latitude-longitude and space. It comes to the conclusion that there is a strong earthquake signal during 2015 and 2016. And it is likely to happen M_S≥6.8 earthquake in 79°-81°W, 1°N-1°S of Ecuador. Theresearch can offer some reference for the trend analysis of earthquake disasters and provide some enlightenment for future research.

关 键 词：可公度 时空对称性 蝴蝶结构图 空间迁移 厄瓜多尔 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]