结构性减税、财政支出扩张与中国经济波动  

Structural Tax Reduction, Fiscal Spending Expansion and Economic Fluctuations in China

作　　者：卞志村[1,2] 胡恒强[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学金融学院 [2]南京财经大学金融研究中心 [3]南京大学商学院

出　　处：《金融评论》2016年第4期18-30,124,共13页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“基于物价调控的我国最优财政货币政策体制研究”(12&ZD064)的阶段性成果;国家百千万人才工程;教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”(NCET);江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)的资助

摘　　要：本文将消费税、投资补贴、劳动收入税和资本收入税引入居民预算约束,分析了我国结构性减税及投资补贴的经济效应。研究表明:减少资本收入税的作用力度最大,但可能使经济大幅波动;减少劳动收入税,可对经济起到微调作用;增加投资补贴在刺激投资的同时却抑制消费;减少消费税在刺激经济增长的同时会促进收入合理分配。本文在构建模型时还将政府支出引入了生产函数,认为其亦具有生产性,并通过财富负效应和收入正效应解释了政府支出对居民消费和投资的"挤入效应"。我们认为在当前经济形势下,进行结构性减税和财政支出扩张都是必要的,两者都可以从需求和供给两端同时发力促进经济平稳运行;而对债务或赤字的调控则应具有长期视角。This paper introduces distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, investment subsidy and government spending into a DSGE model of closed economy. It shows that reducing capital income tax may make economic system fluctuate violently. Reducing labor income tax may have little impact on the whole economic system. Investment subsidies may inhibit consumption, while reducing consumption tax may promote a more rational distribution of income. This paper explains how the government spending affects consumption and investment through the neg-ative wealth effect and the positive income effect. Based on the above analysis, in the current state of Chinese economy,structural tax reduction and government spending is needed, but we should focus on structural adjustment and use the long-term perspective to manage the debt and fiscal deficits.

关 键 词：结构性税收 政府支出 经济波动 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F124.8