长江中下游冬小麦春季湿渍害灾损风险评估  

RISK ASSESSMENT ON WINTER WHEAT SUFFERING FROM SPRING WET DAMAGES IN MIDDLE AND LOWER YANGTZE

作　　者：吴洪颜[1] 曹璐[1] 李娟[1] 高苹[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象局,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2016年第8期1279-1285,共7页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015M24);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406028);国家自然科学基金(41371412)~~

摘　　要：春季湿渍害对南方冬小麦生长发育和产量形成影响很大。选取能较好反映冬小麦湿渍害特征的降雨量、日照和作物需水量构建湿渍害气象判别指数,从春季湿渍害产量实际损失的角度,对受灾频率、因灾减产频率、产量损失风险强度进行分析,基于减产频率和产量灾损风险强度建立风险评估模型,并依据风险值大小进行分区。结果表明:沿江江南地区冬小麦春季湿渍害受灾频率最高,为风险高值区,约占全区台站27%;风险中值区范围较大,约占47%,分布在江淮东部、淮北大部、江汉平原以及鄂东南地区;低风险区约占全区16%,主要分布在湖北北部和淮北局部地区。Spring wet damages seriously affect the growth and yield formation of winter wheat in south China. In this paper, a wet damage weather index was constructed with rainfall, sunshine and crop water requirement. From the perspective of winter wheat output loss, the frequency of yield reduction, disaster forming, damage risk intensity were analyzed, a damage intensity risk index model was established based on the frequency and damage risk intensity, and zones were divided according to the risk value. The results show that the southern region of the Yangtze River and western Jianghuai were the areas of high risk of spring wet damages, accounted for about 27% of district stations. The middle risk zone included most regions of Jiangsu and Anhui province, Jianghan plain region, eastern Jianghuai, southern Huaibei and the southeastern Hubei, which accounted for about 47%. The low risk area accounted for about 16% of the all district,mainly distributed in the northern Hubei and northern Huaibei areas.

关 键 词：冬小麦 春季湿渍害 减产频率 灾损风险强度 

分 类 号：S429[农业科学—植物保护]