基于可变集的区域水资源全要素配置方案评价  

Evaluation of total factor allocation scheme of regional water resources based on the variable set

作　　者：邱庆泰 王刚[1] 王维[1] 冯忠伦[1] 赵天宇 林洪孝[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018 [2]南水北调东线山东干线有限责任公司,济南250000

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2016年第5期55-61,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(41202174);教育部博士点基金资助(20123702120020)~~

摘　　要：传统的区域水资源配置以水量配置为主,存在的指标单一、评价重量轻质、忽视水质潜在效应及缺乏水质调控方案等问题;以统筹水资源、社会经济、生态环境三大系统的水资源全要素配置为指导,通过水量水质联合配置得出配置方案集;将可变模糊清晰集应用于方案集评价,构建了基于指标区间优选法的评价模型,该模型包括水资源配置中指标级别区间的构建及评价。经山东省邹城市2030年水资源配置方案实证分析表明:山东省邹城市2030年水资源配置方案集级别特征值区间为[2.5,3.5],水资源可持续利用程度处于良好与及格之间,评价模型实用性成果显著。The water resources allocation based on water quantity has some problems,for example,selecting single index,weight of the evaluation results,neglecting the potential effect of water quality and lack of water quality controlling program.So,this paper cnstructed the index system of water resources allocation including water resources,social economy and ecological environment;The configuration scheme set was obtained by the combination of water quantity and water quality;The evaluation model was structured by variable set in order to take into account the fuzzy variation of each factor.This paper used the interval optimization method to divide the leading indicators into five levels and construct the sequence of each indicators,and evaluate the water resources allocating scheme at Zoucheng city in 2030.The results showed that the level of water resources allocating scheme in Zoucheng city was[2.5,3.5].The sustainable utilization level of water resources was between good and pass,and the evaluation proved the significant applicability of the model.

关 键 词：水量水质 全要素优化 可变集 区间 级别 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]