基于收缩估计对投球命中率、三分球命中率和罚球命中率的预测  

Prediction of Shooting Average,Three-point Shot Percentage and Free Throw Percentage Based on the Shrinkage Estimation

作　　者：曹蕾[1] 刘瑞[1] 李群[1] 董小刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]长春工业大学基础科学学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《伊犁师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期8-11,共4页Journal of Yili Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：长春工业大学扶持基金项目(201603Q)

摘　　要：投球命中率、三分球命中率和罚球命中率是衡量篮球运动员表现的三个重要指标.采用多种估计方法,基于CBA 2014-2015赛季的数据对2015-2016赛季运动员投球命中率、三分球命中率和罚球命中率进行预测,结果表明:采用收缩估计和分类预测是必要的,SUREθ?M是一个非常有竞争力的收缩估计方法.Shooting average,three-point shot percentage and free throw percentage are three of the principle performance measures for an individual basketball player.We use different methods to predict shooting average,three-point shot percentage and free throw percentage in the 2015-2016 season based on the CBA data of 2014-2015 season.The numerical results indicate the necessity of the shrinkage estimators and the necessity of the classification prediction.SURE θ?M is a competitive shrinkage estimator method.

关 键 词：收缩估计 经验贝叶斯极大似然 经验贝叶斯矩估计 Stein′s UNBIASED riskestimate 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]