基于灰色模型的天津社会经济发展与海洋环境关联性研究  

Study of the relationship between coastal socio-economy and marine environment in Tianjin based on Grey Model

作　　者：路文海[1,2] 曲艳敏[2] 向先全[2] 吴玥[3] 杨翼[2] 刘书明[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,山东青岛266100 [2]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171 [3]国家海洋标准计量中心,天津300112

出　　处：《海洋通报》2016年第4期361-366,共6页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国海洋发展研究中心重大项目(AOCZDA201205-1)

摘　　要：随着天津经济的迅速发展,海洋开发力度增大,给近岸海洋生态环境带来了较大压力。弄清区域经济发展与环境污染之间的关联,对于寻求环境和经济的协调、可持续发展具有重要作用。采用灰色关联度分析和耦合度分析方法,定量揭示了经济发展与海洋环境的关联程度,从时序角度分析了2006-2013年经济与环境耦合关系的演变规律,同时对2014-2018年天津经济和海洋环境耦合关系的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:1经济规模中,地区生产总值增长速度与环境关联度较大;海洋产业活动中,海水养殖产量同未达清洁海域面积、活性磷酸盐浓度和无机氮浓度关联度较大,原油产量显著关联于石油类浓度,而海洋化工产品产量则与化学需氧量呈现强相关;22006-2013年天津社会经济与海洋环境的耦合度整体呈先升高后下降的趋势,但耦合关系始终处在磨合阶段;32014-2016年天津社会经济与海洋环境的耦合度出现缓慢上升,而2016-2018年耦合关系变化较小甚至有出现下降的趋势,未来还必须继续加大海洋环境保护力度,促进环境与经济的协调发展。With the development of economy in Tianjin,and development activities weighed more heavily on the marine environment.In order to study the relationship between coastal socio-economy and marine environment,this paper quantitatively revealed the degree of association between economic development and the marine environment by using the grey relationship analysis and coupling system,and analyzed the evolution of coupled relationship in terms of the time sequence from 2006 to 2013.Therefore,the coupled relationship between socio-economy and marine environment in Tianjin from 2014 to 2018 was predicted by using the grey GM（1,1） forecast model.Results showed that,mariculture production was strongly related to unclean sea area,inorganic nitrogen content and active phosphate content.In addition,offshore oil exploration and development was strongly related to oil content,and marine chemical industry was strongly related to chemical oxygen demand.From 2006 to 2013,the coupled relationship between socio-economy and marine environment in Tianjin had a decreasing trend after the first rising,and kept in a running-in stage.Therefore,from 2014 to 2016,the degree of coupling between socio-economy and marine environment in Tianjin would be slowly rising,and would have a declining trend from 2016 to 2018.It is necessary to make effective efforts to promote the coordination of economy and marineenvironment in the future.

关 键 词：灰色关联度 耦合度 灰色预测 海洋环境 沿海经济 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]