基于随机情景模拟统计的海洋溢油污染风险分析——以滨州贝壳堤岛与湿地国家级自然保护区为例  

Risk analysis of marine oil spill pollution using a stochastic simulation approach:a case study of Binzhou chenier plain and national wetland nature reserve

作　　者：廖国祥[1] 代丽利 卢伟志[1] 叶金清[1] 刘长安[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁大连116023 [2]大连科技学院,辽宁大连116052

出　　处：《海洋通报》2016年第4期467-479,共13页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41306099);山东省海洋生态环境与防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(2012008);国家海洋局近岸海域生态环境重点实验室开放基金(201303)

摘　　要：定量分析敏感资源环境遭受突发性溢油事故的污染风险,对加强海洋溢油风险管理和应急响应具有现实意义。通过参考国内外现有研究成果,构建了溢油随机情景模拟统计方法,并利用GIS技术实现数据管理及可视化分析。考虑到海洋保护区是典型生物多样性和生态环境保护的敏感区域,以滨州贝壳堤岛与湿地国家级自然保护区为例进行案例研究。首先根据对保护区附近的黄骅港、滨州港海港码头、进港航道、锚地及埕北油田石油平台等溢油风险源的分析,选取3个代表性泄漏地点。然后在经验证的潮流场模拟数据和2004-2005年风玫瑰图数据基础上,对每个地点分别进行450次随机溢油事故情景(即不同泄漏时间、风速风向、潮流场等)的模拟计算。统计结果显示,全年所有风向条件下保护区遭受以上泄漏地点的最大溢油污染概率分别为22.9%、9.7%、3.0%,海面油膜最快到达时间分别为2 h、5 h、40 h。与典型情景模拟法的比较可知,随机情景模拟法是前者的重要补充,能够弥补大量遗漏的事故情景,有助于更客观全面地分析与评价海洋保护区遭受溢油事故的污染风险。Quantitative analysis on the risks of sensitive resources and environments being polluted by oil spill accidents is significant to strengthen the marine oil spill risk management and emergency response.Based on the previous studies,an oil spill stochastic scenario simulation approach was developed,and the GIS technology was employed to facilitate data management and visualization.Considering that marine protected areas（MPAs） are typical sensitive areas for the biodiversity and ecology protection,the MPA（namely Binzhou chenier plain and national wetland nature reserve） located in Bohai Sea of China was selected for the case study.Following the analysis of the oil spill risk sources near the MPA,including sea ports,approach channels,anchorages and oil platforms,three potential spill sites were selected.On the basis of current field data generated by hydrodynamic model and wind rose diagram data during 2004-2005,450 times of stochastic simulation for each spill site were carried out.The results show that the maximum probabilities of the MPA being polluted by oil spills are 22.9 %,9.7 %,3.0 %,respectively,and the shortest arrival time are 2 h,5 h,40 h,respectively.The comparison between the typicalscenario simulation approach and the stochastic scenario simulation approach was also studied.And the result shows that the latter approach,which is an important supplement of the former,can make up a number of missing spill scenarios,and provide more objective and overall oil spill pollution risk analysis results for marine special protected targets（e.g.MPAs）.

关 键 词：溢油 随机模拟统计 风险分析 污染概率 最快到达时间 海洋保护区 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学] X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程]