借力“一带一路”战略推进中国农产品出口中亚五国——基于三元边际的实证分析  

Expand China's Agricultural Exports to Five Central Asian Countries under the“One Belt,One Road”Strategy:Based on Three Margins

作　　者：杨逢珉[1] 丁建江[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学欧洲研究所,上海200237 [2]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《华东理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第3期84-92,共9页Journal of East China University of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金“两岸农产品贸易竞争关系及ECFA框架下合作”(项目编号:12YJAGAT002);上海社科基金项目“中国新型城镇化背景下农民市场参与能力提升的渠道、机制及其政策研究”阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文首先对近十几年来中国农产品对中亚五国的出口贸易进行分析,在此基础上运用三元边际的分析方法,研究了中国农产品对中亚五国出口增长的主要影响因素及其变化趋势。文章利用1999-2014年中国农产品出口中亚五国HS96版本6分位贸易数据,将农产品出口增长分解为扩展、价格与数量边际。结论显示:分国家看,1999-2014年中国农产品对中亚五国的出口增长中,对哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦四个国家的出口增长主要由是价格边际的增长引起,仅对乌兹别克斯坦的出口增长主要是由扩展边际扩张引起,说明中国农产品对中亚五国的出口质量仍有待提升;分时期看,价格边际对农产品出口增长的贡献较大,而扩展边际贡献度相对较少,同时金融危机对我国农产品出口中亚市场的冲击主要通过影响价格边际实现。Firstly, this paper analyzes the status of China＇s agricultural exports to five Central Asian countries in recent years. Furthermore,the paper analyzes the main influence factors and the variation trend of China＇s agricultural exports to these five countries by adopting the three margins analysis. We decompose the agricultural export growth into three margins,including extensive,quantity and price margins based on China＇s agricultural exports data in HS-6 digit from year 1999 to year 2014. The result shows that from year1999 to year 2014, China＇s agricultural exports growth to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan was mainly driven by price margin,while only the agricultural exports growth to Uzbekistan was achieved by extensive margin,which implies that the quality of China＇s agricultural exports still has room to improve. If we divide the time period from year 1999 to year 2014 into five phases,we find that the contribution of price margin to the agricultural exports growth is the largest among three margins,and the contribution of extensive margin is relatively small. Moreover,according to the empirical analysis,the financial crisis influences China＇s agricultural exports to five Central Asian countries mainly through price margin.

关 键 词：中国与中亚五国 农产品出口 三元边际 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]