高含水油田含水率预测灰色Verhulst模型优化  

Optimization of Grey Verhulst Model for High Water Cut Oilfield

作　　者：管错 石成方[1] 王继强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《重庆科技学院学报（自然科学版）》2016年第4期39-41,共3页Journal of Chongqing University of Science and Technology：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家科技重大专项"剩余油分布综合预测与精细注采结构调整技术"(2011ZX05010-002)

摘　　要：针对原始含水率数据波动性较大时出现的状况,对灰色Verhulst模型进行优化。改进白化方程初始值选取方法,提高灰色Verhulst模型的预测精度。优化后灰色Verhulst模型预测效果良好,预测高含水阶段含水上升规律时的小误差概率达到100%。In the light of the initial water cut＇s fluctuation, an improved grey Verhulst model method is proposed. By improving the choice of the whitening equation initial value, the prediction accuracy of grey Verhulst model is improved. The improved grey Verhulst model has good effect on the prediction of water cut, and the small error probability of the water cut rising rule can reach 100% in the high water cut stage.

关 键 词：水驱油田 含水率 灰色VERHULST模型 

分 类 号：TE155[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]