基于模糊不确定需求条件下疏散计划优化方法的研究  

Study on Optimization of an Evacuation Plan with Uncertain Demands

作　　者：李峰[1] 曾赛峰[1] 张益星[1] 高德翔 

机构地区：[1]湖南工程学院计算机与通信学院,湘潭411104

出　　处：《湖南工程学院学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期49-55,共7页Journal of Hunan Institute of Engineering(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：湖南工程学院青年重点项目(XJ1504);湖南工程学院校级大学生创新项目[校办字83号文件47号]

摘　　要：疏散计划是灾害管理的一项重要的内容.针对疏散计划固有的不确定特性,提出了一种公共交通疏散路线设计.设计中,每个受灾点灾民的需求用模糊数据表示,车辆线路的分配用置信指数表示,通过实验分析和讨论了最后结果中不确定因素对疏散计划的不利影响,评估了置信偏好指数对设置线路的影响,设计了解决疏散计划的最佳方案,并获取了最佳参数.Evacuation planning is an important activity in disaster management. Due to the sudden occurrence of disasters, evacuation should be preplanned. It is necessary for evacuation plan to be as close as possible to a real evacuation operation. However, evacuation planning is a challenge because of inherent uncertainty in required information. One important source of uncertainty in evacuation is the uncertainty in evacuation demands. This paper presents an evacuation vehicle routing problem to design evacuation routes for public vehicles. In this problem, demand （number of evacuees） at each pick-up point is introduced as a fuzzy number and the assignment of the pick-up points to the vehicle routes happens based on a credibility preference index. A genetic algorithm based on fuzzy credibility theory is designed to optimize the problem. The optimum parameter set for genetic algorithm is obtained by Taguchi experimental design. The presented problem and algorithm are applied to a part of Tehran transportation network. The impact of credibility preference index on the achieved solutions is evaluated and its best value is determined for the case study. Moreover, different tests are implemented to analyze and discuss the influence of uncertainty level on the final results.

关 键 词：疏散计划 模糊不确定需求 优化 路线设计 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]