基于集对分析的土石坝施工期风险评价  

Risk Evaluation of Earth-rock Dam during Construction Period Based on Set Pair Analysis

作　　者：李宗坤[1] 李奇[1] 杨朝霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《水力发电》2016年第9期54-59,共6页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379192)

摘　　要：针对土石坝施工期安全稳定性差,风险事件多发的特点,引入集对分析理论,建立联系度评价矩阵,从同、异、反3方面全面刻画评价指标与各风险等级的同一和对立程度。同时考虑传统AHP方法存在的专家打分偏于绝对、专家打分的可靠性及专家间动态差异未被充分考虑的不足,运用区间数学理论建立不确定型判断矩阵,计算专家置信度并确定风险评价指标的动态权重,进而建立基于集对分析的土石坝施工期风险评价模型。将此方法应用于工程实例,结果表明,所建立的土石坝施工期风险评价的集对分析方法可行而有效。Because many risk events are usually occurred in the eonstruction period of earth-rock dam, the Set Pair Analysis theory is introduced to evaluate the risks. Firstly, the connection degree evaluation matrixes are established, which can comprehensively describe the relationships between evaluation indexes and risk ranks from three aspects of identity, difference and antagonism. And then, an uncertain type of AHP method based on expert＇s credibility is proposed herein to compute experts＇ confidences and determine the dynamic weights of risk factors after considering the shortages of expert scnring to be absolute, less considering the credibility of expert scoring and the dynamic difference between experts in traditional AHP evaluation. Finally, the risk evaluation model of earth-rock dam during construction period based on Set Pair Analysis method is developed. The application of model shows that the Set Pair Analysis method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：土石坝 风险评价 集对分析 不确定型AHP 动态权重 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]