中国粮食供需的区域格局研究  

Regional pattern of grain supply and demand in China

作　　者：胡甜[1] 鞠正山[2] 周伟[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市规划与设计学院,深圳518055 [2]国土资源部土地整治重点实验室,北京100035 [3]中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院,北京100083

出　　处：《地理学报》2016年第8期1372-1383,共12页Acta Geographica Sinica

摘　　要：粮食安全问题在世界范围内一直被高度关注。本文主要以中国333个地级市为基本研究单元,在粮食供需现状分析的基础上,借助GIS和Geoda空间分析工具,从区域的空间差异和时空变化两个角度,建立粮食供需模型,研究中国粮食供需的结构特征和空间分布规律。结果表明:(1)2012年中国粮食供需结构为净余粮,仅有约52%的地级市能通过粮食生产保障基本粮食需求。(2)粮食供需的空间分布具有区域差异性,基本呈现西缺粮东余粮,南缺粮北余粮的特点;(3)在省域和地级市两种空间单元尺度上,粮食供需有一定的规律,表现出明显相关性,呈集聚状态。(4)2008-2012年,中国的净余粮量增加,高余粮和高缺粮是主要的变化类型,其中高余粮区对余粮量增长的贡献率达到75.24%。Food security has become a worldwide concern. Considering the huge population of China, the need for food security in the country cannot be overemphasized. Grain is an important source of food for the Chinese people. Therefore, it is necessary to understand grain output and deficit situation in China. In this study, with the help of GIS and Geoda analysis methods, we constructed a relationship model of grain output and deficit to understand the structure and spatial distribution. Based on population and grain statistic data from 2008 to2012, this study took 333 prefectures and districts as objects. The results show that grain supply and demand are currently in a net surplus situation in China. There are 160 cities that could satisfy their grain needs by cultivation of grain, accounting for 48% of all prefecture units. In reference to grain supply- demand spatial distribution, there exists obvious regional differentiation, presenting grain deficit in western China, likewise for southern regions, and grain surplus in eastern and northern regions. In addition, the regularity of scale distribution is proposed. Grain supply-demand exhibits significant spatial correlation and clustering effects at provincial and prefecture levels. And lastly, the net amount of grain surplus gradually increased from 2008 to 2012. High grain- output and high grain- deficit are the dominant transfer types.The high grain- output regions make great contributions to the growing of grain surplus,accounting for 75.24% of the increment.

关 键 词：粮食供需 空间格局 区域差异 空间自相关 中国 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]