基于集对分析的大坝风险后果综合评价  

Comprehensive Assessment of Dam Risk Consequences Caused by the Dam Failure Based on the Set Pair Analysis

作　　者：李宗坤[1] 李奇[1] 葛巍[1] 杨朝霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2016年第9期111-114,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379192)

摘　　要：针对大坝风险的自身不确定性、相互间关联性及量纲不统一而造成的大坝风险后果综合评价困难的问题,结合现有法律法规对溃坝后果事故等级分类的相关规定,建立基于集对分析的大坝风险后果综合评价模型,从同、异、反三方面刻画风险后果与各事故等级的趋同程度,并根据最大集对势原理确定大坝风险后果综合评价等级及其排序。将该评价模型应用于江西省5座水库大坝溃坝后果综合评价中,并将该评价结果与基于属性区间计算模型的评价结果进行对比。结果表明:集对分析评价模型过程简明、运算量少,且评价结果合理、客观、全面、清晰,为大坝风险后果综合评价提供了一种新思路。The comprehensive assessment of dam risk consequences caused by the dam failure is difficult because of the uncertainty, inter-related and the non-unification of the risk consequences. For this problem, combining with the existing laws and regulations of dam failure accidents classification rules, this paper proposed a dam risk comprehensive evaluation model based on set pair analysis. This model could describe the degree of convergence of the consequences and the accident risk level from the same, different, opposite three aspects. According to the maximum set pair potential theory, the model could get the dam risk consequences comprehensive evaluation level and the sorting. The evaluation model was applied to 5 damsr comprehensive evaluation of Jiangxi Province. The evaluation result was compared with another result based on the attribute interval computation model. Results show that the set pair analysis evaluation model process is simple, less computation and the evaluation result is reasonable, objective, comprehensive and clear. This model has provided a new way for comprehensive evaluation of dam risk consequences.

关 键 词：大坝风险后果 综合评价 集对分析 集对势 排序 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV698