东北三省近55a旱涝时空演变特征  

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought-waterlogging in three provinces of Northeast China in past 55 years

作　　者：杨晓静[1] 徐宗学[1,2] 左德鹏[1,2] 蔡思扬 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]全球变化协同研究中心,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第4期9-19,共11页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401036)~~

摘　　要：东北三省是我国重要的粮食主产区,而干旱和雨涝对该区域农业生产的影响不容忽视。为全面反映东北三省旱涝时空分布特征,基于研究区70个气象站点1960-2014年逐月降水数据,计算了不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)。在分析旱涝频率、旱涝发生范围及旱涝空间分布特征的基础上,利用经验正交函数(EOF)及K-means聚类方法,对不同时间尺度分别进行了旱涝分区。结果表明:(1)旱涝时空变化特征:不同时间尺度旱涝频率与其发生范围差异显著,1960-2014年间东北三省春季与冬季存在湿润化趋势,夏季、秋季、生长季及年际尺度均略呈干旱化趋势,且东北三省遭遇雨涝的风险略大于干旱;(2)旱涝分区方面:黑龙江省同时受干旱和雨涝风险最大,其次分别为辽宁省与吉林省。Three provinces of the Northeast are the important grain production areas in China, which are always impacted by droughts and floods. In order to investigate the characteristics of drought and watertogging in the region, the monthly precipitation data of 70 meteorological stations in study area from 1960 to 2014, were used to calculate the multi-time scale value of Standardized Precipitation Drought Index （SPI）. The frequency, the influenced areas and the spatial distribution features of droughts and waterlogging were analyzed and the regionalization of drought/ waterlogging was conducted for different time scales by empirical orthogonal function （EOF） and K-means cluster. The results show that ： （ 1 ） Spatiotemporal features of drought and flood ： drought frequency and the impacted areas indicate significant changes under multi-time scale conditions. There is a potential tendency towards wetter in spring and winter; the drought trend exists in summer, autumn, the crop growth season and annual time scale. The risk of water logging in these provinces is serious slightly than that of drought ; （2） In regionalization of drought and waterlogging, the risk in Heilongjing Province is the largest, next are those in Jilin Province and Liaoning Province.

关 键 词：SPI 旱涝趋势 EOF K-MEANS聚类 分区 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]