华北地区汛期降水特征及对铁路水害的影响  

Characteristis of precipitation during flood period in north China and its influence on railway flood disaster

作　　者：王冀[1] 马宁[2] 申文军 黄强[4] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气候中心,北京100089 [2]天津市气候中心,天津300074 [3]北京市铁路局工务处,北京10081 [4]河北省保定市气象局,河北保定071000

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第4期30-39,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：公益性行业专项(201206024);北京市科技计划项目(Z141100003614052)~~

摘　　要：收集整理了近几十年华北地区逐日降水(1961-2012年)和铁路水害资料(1973-2012年),采用了趋势分析、相关分析等多种统计方法分析了华北地区汛期降水特性及其与铁路水害的关系,并提出了应对这一铁路水害的防御措施。结果表明,华北地区夏季各等级降水量和降水日数均呈现出显著下降趋势,其中暴雨量和小雨日数的下降趋势最为显著。各等级降水强度变化趋势不同,小雨和大雨强度呈上升趋势。华北夏季持续性强降水过程的发生次数、持续天数及过程降水量均有减少趋势,并呈现一致的年代际特征。7月持续性强降水过程出现次数最多,其次为8月。2000年以来,6月发生持续性强降水过程的次数明显增多。华北铁路水害断道时间和次数均呈下降趋势。Based on the data about of daily precipitation （ 1961 - 2012 ） and railway flood disasters （ 1973 - 2012 ） in North China, multiple statistical methods, including trend analysis and correlation analysis, were adopted to analyze the characteristics of precipitation during flood peried in North China and its connections with the railway flood disasters. Some protection measures against the disasters were then proposed. The results reveal a significant de- crease in the total amount and rain days of all categories of precipitation, with the most obvious downtrend in the torrential rain amount and sprinkle days, while the intensity of sprinkle and heavy rain increases. On the other hand, the frequency, total duration and precipitation of the lasting heavy precipitation in summer over North China decrease with, varying coincidentally on the inter-decadal scale. The frequency of lasting heavy precipitation is highest in July and second highest in August, while that in June presents an increasing trend after the year of 2000. The annual duration and frequency of railway flood disasters in North China also present a decreasing trend during the analyzed period.

关 键 词：华北 降水 持续性强降水 铁路水害 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]