基于ARDL模型的我国财政赤字对通货膨胀的影响研究  

Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation Based on ARDL Model

作　　者：刘利[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]池州学院数学计算机学院,安徽池州247000 [2]上海财经大学统计与管理学院,上海200439

出　　处：《湖北文理学院学报》2016年第8期45-50,共6页Journal of Hubei University of Arts and Science

基　　金：池州学院院级自然重点项目(2015ZRZ006);上海财经大学博士创新基金项目(CXJJ-2015-433)

摘　　要：建立ARDL(自回归分布滞后)模型,分别对1978—2014年中国财政赤字率、名义利率及贸易开放度与通货膨胀之间的长期均衡和短期调整关系进行分析.边限协整检验表明通货膨胀水平与这3个变量间存在长期均衡关系,长期估计系数显示这3个变量均对通胀水平有显著影响,影响程度分别为0.448、0.345、-0.219,表明中国的价格水平决定因素中财政占主导地位.从短期来看,通货膨胀的滞后1期、滞后2期对自身的变动存在显著的正的影响,且滞后1期的影响效果大于滞后2期.定量分析结果表明,中国通货膨胀的控制应以财政政策为主,同时要有效管理好通胀预期.This paper establishes the ARDL（autoregressive distributed lag） model to test long-term and shortterm equilibrium relationship between inflation and deficit rate, the nominal interest rate and trade openness over the period of 1978 to 2014.Bounds test indicates the presence of long-term equilibrium relationship between the level of inflation and the three variables, the estimated coefficients of long-term relationship show that three variables all have a significant impact on the level of inflation, the impact is 0.448,0.345,-0.219 respectively,indicating that fiscal deficit is a major determinant of the price level decision. In the short term, the lag 1 and lag2 both have a significant positive impact on its own change, and the lagged impact of the one is more than the two. On the basis of our findings of quantitative analysis, to control the inflation, fiscal policy should be oriented,combined with effective management of inflation expectations.

关 键 词：ARDL模型 边限检验 财政赤字 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]