上海入境旅游需求建模分析与预测——以亚洲市场为例  

Modeling analysis and forecasting inbound tourism demand to Shanghai: a case study of Asian market

作　　者：姜国华[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江商业职业技术学院,浙江杭州310053

出　　处：《旅游研究》2016年第5期68-74,85,共8页Tourism Research

摘　　要：采用自回归分布滞后模型（ ADLM）,通过6个亚洲国家/地区（日本、香港、台湾、韩国、菲律 宾、新加坡）旅游市场的季度数据分析,探求影响上海人境旅游需求的主要因素.文章应用了从“一般到简 单”计量经济建模方法.实证结果表明,客源地的经济状况是中国人境旅游需求的最重要决定因素.口碑效 应是决定上海六个亚洲旅游市场旅游需求的重要影响因素.最后文中通过对六个亚洲市场的旅游需求弹性的 分析和未来五年（2016 -2020年）旅游需求进行季度预测,为上海旅游产业政策制定提供了政策建议和依 据,也为中国其它城市人境旅游发展提供借鉴.The main objective of this paper is to identify the most influencing factors which contribute to Shanghai^ inbound tourism demand in six Asian tourist generating destinations, including Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines and Singapore, using the autoregressive distributed lag model （ ADLM ） . The general - to - specific modeling approach is applied to the model. Empirical results reveal that the most important factor that determines the demand for Shanghai tourism is the economic condition in the origin markets. The factor of “word of mouth effect” is still the crucial determinants of the tourism flows from six Asian international markets. The demand elasticity obtained from the demand models and the next five years tourism demand quar-terly forecasts forms the basis of policy formulations for the tourism industry in Shanghai and recommendations are made to further tourism demand studies. It also provides reference for the inbound tourism development of other cities in China.

关 键 词：上海 入境旅游需求 ADLM 弹性 亚洲市场 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]