谁在进城务工?——我国农民工自选择现状及性别与代际差异探析  

Who Immigrates to Cities?Migrant Workers'Self-Selection and Differences on Gender and Generation in China

作　　者：郑雅洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学马克思主义学院,北京100871

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2016年第5期136-147,共12页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

摘　　要：劳动力的自选择情况是劳动力迁移研究的基础性内容,本文对我国农民工自选择现状及性别和代际差异进行了分析。理论模型的推导发现:当迁入地的教育回报率较迁出地越高、迁移成本与移民受教育水平的负相关程度越高时,移民教育水平的正向选择越可能出现;当移民可观测特征与不可观测因素间的关联性较强时,综合能力的正选择也越易出现。本文利用中国综合社会调查2013年数据对农民工受教育程度进行统计描述并测算教育回报率,初步发现农民工是正向自选择的。基于反事实收入分布估算法的研究表明:我国农民工,无论是就总体还是分性别而言,都是正向自选择的,并且女性农民工的正向自选择程度高于男性;新老两代农民工也均为正向选择,但新生代农民工的正向自选择程度有所下降。本文的稳健性检验也验证了以上结论。Analysis on self-selection of migrants is the basic for labor migration research;this paper analyzes the self-selection status of migrant workers as well as differences on gender and generation.We first revise the model of Borjas,make the assumption of heterogeneous mobility cost and get the condition for positive or negative selection of migrants:that is,the higher the return on education of destination relative to hometown is,and the greater the degree of negative relation between mobility cost and education is,the more likely the migrants'education is to be positively self-selected.And if the positive relation between observable and unobservable factors is strong enough,the migrants'comprehensive ability could also be positively self-selected.Then we display the statistic description of education and calculate the return on education by using data from CGSS 2013,which allows us to get the preliminary conclusion that migrants are positively self-selected.After that,we use the method of counterfactual income distribution estimation to get the final conclusion that,migrants are positively self-selected,regardless of gender and generation.Moreover,female migrants and old generation migrants are more positively self-selected than male and new generation migrants respectively.Lastly,the robustness check confirms the above result.

关 键 词：农民工 自选择 反事实收入 教育回报率 劳动力迁移 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]