风险条件下设施农业生产决策  

Production Decision of Facility Agriculture under Risk Condition

作　　者：张兆同[1] 孟祥超[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学工学院,江苏南京210031

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2016年第21期227-231,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学基金项目(SKZD2015005)

摘　　要：设施农业是我国农业发展的重要内容,也是我国农业资源高效利用的重要生产模式。在我国设施农业快速发展的同时,其生产决策表现出科学性不足,主要体现为存在明显的盲目性和随意性。构建了农作物组合优化决策模型,采用贪心算法,以最大经济效益为目标,综合考虑风险以及作物轮作等因素,得出了最优生产决策组合方案;通过与优化前种植方案的比较,表明采用决策模型所获得方案的利润有所增加,且全年承担风险更加平稳。因此,对以企业方式进行生产的设施农业单位,可以通过优化组合生产计划,实现经济效益的增加,进而提高生产者的生产积极性和产品的市场竞争力。Facility agriculture,a major subject of our country＇s agriculture development,plays a very important role in enhancing utilization efficiency of agricultural resources. Nowadays,although facility agriculture is being quickly adopted in China,the management of the agriculture facilities lacks a systematic guidance,leading to great blindness and randomness in the daily operations. In this research,we proposed an optimization framework for crop planting and scheduling,which employed a greedy algorithm to maximize the total economic profit. Considering the risk,crop rotation and other factors,we obtained the optimal scheme of production decision combination. Compared with the planting program before optimization,adopting the decision model increased the profits. And the risk was more stable throughout the year. Therefore,facility agriculture unit which produced in enterprise mode could optimize the combined production plan,realize the increase of economic benefits,and further enhance the production enthusiasm of producers and the market competitiveness of products.

关 键 词：生产决策模型 作物轮作 贪心算法 设施农业 风险 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]