经济增长规模与速度对交通安全风险的影响VAR模型研究  

Dynamic Analysis of Relativity between Scale and Speed of Economic Growth and Traffic Accidents Risks

作　　者：宋利[1] 张姗姗[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济管理学院,淮南232001

出　　处：《中国公共安全（学术版）》2016年第3期77-79,共3页China Public Security(Academy Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(12YJAZH119);安徽高校人文社会科学研究重大项目(SK2016SD24)

摘　　要：改革开放以后,伴随着中国经济高速增长,频繁的交通事故已经成为严重的公共安全问题。本文采用1979-2012年经济增长和交通风险数据建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,分析了经济增长与交通风险指标之间的关联性。研究结果证明,1979-2012年间经济增长与交通风险之间存在长期关系,经济增长规模比经济增长速度对交通风险的影响更加显著。经济增长冲击对交通风险指标影响显著,经济繁荣对交通风险有显著拉动作用。Along with high speed economy development, China roadway traffic accidents have become a severe social problem. Thus it is necessary to study relativity between roadway traffic accidents and economic growth, so as to explore macro evolvement laws of roadway traffic accidents and assort roadway traffic safety with economic growth. VAR models were built to analyze relativity between roadway traffic accidents and economic growth based on 1979- 2012 period data. Results proved that there existed a long-term relativity between roadway traffic safety and economic growth. Compared with economic speed, economic growth scale had more obvious effect on roadway traffic accidents. Variation of economic growth has obvious effect on roadway traffic accidents, and economy boom has a steady and notable motivate role on death toll and fatality rate per 105person.

关 键 词：经济增长 交通安全 VAR模型 

分 类 号：X91[环境科学与工程—安全科学]