新常态下产业结构与就业结构协调性研究——基于广西的实证  

A Research of Coordination between Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in New Normal——Based on the Situation in Guangxi

作　　者：刘俊杰[1] 叶允最 

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学经济管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第4期48-55,共8页Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金一般项目"城乡一体化进程中的新型城乡形态研究"(11XJL007);广西人文社会科学发展研究中心项目"主体功能区视角下珠江-西江经济带城乡融合路径及对策研究"(ZX2016022);广西人文社会科学发展研究中心"泛北部湾发展研究团队"(TD2011005);西南城市与区域发展研究中心阶段性成果

摘　　要：新常态背景下,广西快速发展进程中累积的产业结构与就业结构不协调的矛盾异常凸显。优化产业结构,实现产业结构变动与就业结构协调发展,成为促进广西转变发展方式、实现经济增长提质增效的重要突破口。采用结构偏离系数衡量广西产业结构与就业结构的偏离程度,并对三次产业结构与就业结构进行协整性检验和Granger因果检验,探寻二者的长期动态关系,研究表明:广西三次产业结构与就业结构呈现严重不协调特征:第一产业滞留过多剩余劳动力,第二产业发展迅速但对劳动力吸纳能力严重不足,第三产业发展缓慢但就业承载效应显著;第一产业产值与其就业率不存在协整关系;二、三产业产值与其就业率具有单向的Granger因果关系。Under the macroeconomic background of structural adjustment and transformation, the incompatibility between industrial structure and employment structure is extremely outstanding in the economic development process of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Optimizing industrial structure and developing coordination between three industries structure adjustment and employment structure is of vital importance for transforming the development pattern, and improving the economic quality and efficiency in Guangxi. This thesis adopts the structural deviation coefficient to measure deviation degree of industrial structure and employment structure in Guangxi, and aims to seek for the long term dynamic relationship between them by using co--integration test and Granger causality test. The research indicates that three industries structure and employment structure in Guangxi turned out to be seriously incompatible. Too much surplus labor is stuck in the primary industry, while the second industry was seriously unable to absorb the labor. The tertiary industry develops slowly, but the effect of its employment carrying capability is prominent. There exists no co--integration relationship between the output value and employment rate of the primary industry, and the output value and employment rate of the second and tertiary industries have a one--way Granger causality relationship.

关 键 词：产业结构 就业结构 协调性 结构偏离系数 

分 类 号：F019.8[经济管理—政治经济学]