基于灰色理论的辽宁省农业产业结构分析与预测  

Analysis and Forecast of Agricultural Industrial Structure of Liaoning Province Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：马成忠[1] 邓继峰[1,2] 魏亚伟[1,2] 邓舸[1] 王虹 杨立新[1] 周永斌[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学林学院,沈阳110866 [2]辽宁辽河平原森林生态系统定位研究站,辽宁昌图112500 [3]辽宁省风沙地改良利用研究所,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《东北农业科学》2016年第4期106-112,共7页Journal of Northeast Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划子课题(2015BAD07B050502)

摘　　要：为了解辽宁省近10年来农业产业结构发展情况,预测辽宁省农业各产业产值和多种农产品产量的变化趋势,本文以《辽宁省统计年鉴》2005~2014年数据为基础,应用灰色关联分析法对辽宁省近10年的农业产值、粮食作物产量、肉类产量、水果产量、水产品产量和造林面积进行分析,运用GM（1,1）模型对农业产值及多种农产品产量进行预测。根据灰色关联分析可知：在农业产值中,种植业和畜牧业与农业总产值的关联较为紧密;在农产品产量中,玉米、水稻、薯类与粮食作物总产量,苹果与水果总产量,禽肉、猪肉与肉类总产量,海水产品与水产品总产量的关联较为紧密;在造林面积中,防护林与造林总面积的关联最为紧密。根据灰色预测可知：从2015年到2020年,农业总产值、各农产品产量都有所增加,肉类产量的增长应当引起重视,农林牧渔服务业产值,梨、禽肉、海水产品产量增长较快。In order to make clear of the development of agricultural industrial structure of Liaoning Province in re-cent decade and to forecast the tendency of agricultural output values and the output of various agricultural productsin Liaoning Province, based on the statistical data of Statistical Yearbook in Liaoning Province from 2005 to 2014,and applying the gray correlation analysis method, the present study was conducted to analyze the agricultural out-put values, grain output, meat output, the fruit output, aquatic products output and the afforestation area of LiaoningProvince in recent decade. Moreover, to use the GM（1,1） model to forecast the agricultural output value and produc-tion of many kinds of agricultural products. According to grey incidence analysis results, the relationship of plantingand animal husbandry on the gross output value of agriculture are relatively closer in the total agricultural output val-ues. The relationship of corn, rice, potato yield and total crop yield; apple yields and total yields of fruit; poultrymeat, pork output and total meat output, marine product and output of total aquatic products are relatively closer.The relationship of protection forest on the afforestation area and total afforestation area are the closest. According togrey prediction results, the total output of agricultural products and the output of agricultural products will increasefrom 2015 to 2020. The growth rate of meat production should be paid more attention to. The output value of agricul-tural services industry and the output of pear, poultry, aquatic products growth rate will be faster.

关 键 词：农业产业结构 灰色关联分析法 灰色预测 农业产值 农产品产量 造林面积 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]