范式转换、异质性与新兴产业演化  

Paradigm shift,heterogeneity and evolution of emerging industry

作　　者：孙晓华[1] 王昀[1] 刘小玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,大连116024

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2016年第8期67-83,共17页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(14BGL14);国家软科学研究计划资助项目(2013GXS4D108);教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(13YJC790127);辽宁省教育厅一般研究资助项目(L2013039)

摘　　要：以新能源车为研究对象,从产品性能、销售价格和后续消费支出3个维度衡量新旧技术经济范式的空间和边界,在异质性条件下构建了消费者选择和企业投资决策模型,利用Matlab7.0对汽车产业的演化过程进行了模拟,并考察了政府消费性补贴和生产性补贴对新兴产业的扶持效应.结果发现:传统能源车凭借产品性能和销售价格的优势占领市场,尽管新能源车使用过程中后续消费支出较低,但无法突破传统能源车企业的主导地位;消费性补贴能够激发新能源车的购买,从需求侧倒逼新能源车企业通过技术创新活动改善产品性能、降低生产成本,有利于提高新兴企业的市场竞争力;生产性补贴虽然从供给侧帮助更多的新能源车企业进入市场参与竞争,却没能改变市场份额和盈利水平低下的困境,而且在一定程度上扰乱了市场秩序,没有真正起到扶持新兴产业发展的效果.Focused old tech-economic on alternative energy vehicles, this paper measures the space and frontier of the new and paradigm in the three dimensions of product performance, selling price and subsequent spending. Under the assumption of heterogeneity, a model of consumer choice and firm investment decision is constructed to simulate the evolution of automobile industry by Matlab 7.0. The effects of government consum- er subsidies and productive subsidies are investigated respectively. The results show that the conventional vehi- cles will dominate the market with the advantages of product performance and selling price, although the sub- sequent spending of alternative energy vehicles is comparatively less. The consumer subsidies can stimulate the purchase of alternative energy vehicles, and from the demand side force the firms producing alternative energy vehicles to improve the product performance and increase the production cost through R＆D activities, so as to increase the firms＇ competitiveness. The productive subsidies from the supply side help the firms producing alteruative energy vehicles enter into the market, but do not change the conditions of low market share and profitability. Further, the subsidies do not take effects in the support of emerging industries, but disturb market order to some extent.

关 键 词：技术经济范式 异质性 产业演化 战略性新兴产业 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]