基于GM(1,N)模型的管输油流静电数值预测  

The Electrostatic Numerical Prediction in Oil Pipeline Transportation Based on GM(1,N)Model

作　　者：杨笑源 赵晓刚[1] 郭湛[1] 彭杨[1] 

机构地区：[1]后勤工程学院军事供油工程系,重庆401311

出　　处：《后勤工程学院学报》2016年第2期87-90,共4页Journal of Logistical Engineering University

摘　　要：为了减少油品在管道输送过程中的静电事故,需要对管路中的静电产生量进行数值预测,从而确定对应的油品流速。建立管输油流产生静电的实验台架,测量出不同流量条件下的静电产生量,并采用GM(1,N)模型对静电产生量进行数值预测。将预测结果与实际测量结果进行比较,二者的平均相对误差为4.36%。预测结果表明,应用GM(1,N)模型预测管输油流静电产生量的方法适合在实践中推广使用。In order to reduce the static electricity accident in the process of oil pipeline transportation, we need to predict theelectrostatic generating capacity in the pipeline, and then determine the corresponding oil flow rate. We established the experimen-tal platform for the electrostatic generating capacity by the pipeline transportation, summed up the electrostatic generating capacityin different flowing conditions, and then predicted the electrostatic generating capacity in the pipeline with the GM(1,N)model.Compare the predicted results and the actual measurement results, the average relative error between them is 4.36%. The forecastresults show that model to predict the electrostatic generating capacity in the pipeline with the GM(1,N)model is applicable in en-gineering practice.

关 键 词：管输油流 静电产生量 GM(1 N)模型 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]