基于混合Bayes方法的系统可靠性评估  

Evaluation of System Reliability by Adopting the Mixed Bayes Method

作　　者：杜海东[1] 曹军海[1] 申莹[1] 滕尚儒 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院技术保障工程系,北京100072

出　　处：《军械工程学院学报》2016年第4期22-26,共5页Journal of Ordnance Engineering College

摘　　要：针对当前系统可靠性评估特点,以及传统Bayes评估方法存在的不足,提出了基于单元可靠性数据的复杂系统可靠性混合Bayes评估方法.首先,介绍了方法的基本原理;其次,结合评估过程,对单元可靠性数据折算模型进行了推导,针对传统Bayes评估方法中现场试验数据容易被"淹没"的问题,提出了复杂系统可靠性评估混合Bayes方法,给出了基于Kullback的继承因子确定方法;最后,应用本文方法对某型火炮供弹机进行可靠性评估,结果表明,文中方法更为可信和有效.This paper analyzes the characteristics of present-day system reliability evaluation and the shortcomings of the traditional Bayes evaluation method,and presents the mixed Bayes evaluation method based on component reliability data for the complex system reliability.Firstly,the basic theory of this method is introduced.Secondly,the paper,in combination with the evaluation process,carries out the derivation of the convert model for translating element reliability information to system,proposes a mixed Bayes method for the reliability evaluation of complex system so as to solve the＂flood＂problem of on-the-spot testing data,and puts forward the method to determine the Kullback-based inheritance factor.Finally,the mixed Bayes evaluation method is used to evaluate the reliability of a type of artillery feeding mechanism,and the results prove that this method is more reliable and efficient.

关 键 词：可靠性 混合Bayes 评估 继承因子 

分 类 号：TP302.7[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]