区域生态安全评价与预警研究——以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例  

Research on the Evaluation and Early-Warning of Regional Ecological Security—— A Case of the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone

作　　者：董会忠[1] 吴朋[1] 丛旭辉 殷秀清[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学商学院,山东淄博255012

出　　处：《软科学》2016年第9期56-61,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71371112);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2012GM020)

摘　　要：运用熵权正态云理论,建立了基于S-T-I模型的山东半岛蓝色经济区生态安全预警模型,对山东半岛蓝色经济区历史时序（2004~2014年）及规划年份（2017年）的生态安全进行定量评估和预警。结果表明：2004~2014年区域生态环境从＂较差状态＂到＂一般状态＂再到＂良好状态＂,总体呈逐渐好转的态势,但整体生态安全水平仍较低,均未达到＂理想状态＂。2017年区域生态安全为＂良好状态＂,且具有向＂一般状态＂发展的趋势,大气污染、水污染、工业＂三废＂等是影响区域生态安全的主要短板因素。This paper constructed the ecological security early-warning model of the Shandong peninsula blue economic zone （SPBEZ） based on the entropy-weight normal cloud theory by S-T-I model. And then, it quantitatively assessed and dynamically early-warn the ecological security of SPBEZ during the historical years（2014 -2017 ） and the year of planning （2017）. Results showed that, the ecological security status from ＂poor state＂ to ＂general state＂ to ＂good state＂ from 2004 to 2014, which demonstrated that the overall status of ecological security was undergoing increasing improvement, but all safety states were less than the general requirement of ＂ideal state＂. The ecological security level of economic zone would be ＂good state＂ and has the tendency of developing to ＂general state＂ in 2017. Atmospheric pollution, water pollution and industrial ＂three wastes＂ are the mainly short board factors of ecological environment in the SPBEZ.

关 键 词：正态云 区域生态安全 预警模型 山东半岛蓝色经济区 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F127