不同抵押约束机制下的房地产市场调控政策效应——基于NK-DSGE模型的分析  

The Effect of Housing Market Regulation Policy under Alternative Collateral Constraints: An Analysis Based on NK-DSGE Model

作　　者：陈利锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京1008362

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2016年第4期16-30,共15页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划学科共建项目(GD14XYJ02)

摘　　要：抵押约束机制对于房地产乃至宏观经济均具有显著影响。构建包含房地产与商业银行的NK-DSGE模型,考察一期抵押约束(IAC)机制与多期抵押约束(GKS)机制下的房地产市场调控政策效果。结果表明:无论是出于稳定实际房价还是出于经济增长的考虑,限购等引起负向房地产偏好冲击的政策、紧缩性货币政策以及增加公积金贷款数量的短期LTV政策,在GKS机制下均具有比IAC机制下更好的效果;基于脉冲响应比较研究发现,在IAC机制下调整首付比例具有更明显的政策效果;无论在IAC机制下还是在GKS机制下,房地产市场均是货币政策应当盯住的目标,监管当局应推行具有反周期性特征的宏观审慎政策工具,以实现房地产市场和物价的稳定。Collateral Constraint plays s significant role in housing price and macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper constructs a NK-DSGE model with housing and banks, and investigates the effect of alternative housing market regulatory policies under one-period loan （ IAC regime） and multi-period loan （ GKS regime）. The result shows that, compared to the IAC regime, the short-term LTV policies, such as the house-buying restriction policy, the tightening monetary policy and the increasing number of provident fund loans, have better effects on real housing price stabilization and economic growth under the GKS regime. The result of comparison of impulse response function argues that the effect of housing market regulation may be much better under the IAC regime when the government adjusts the loan-to-value ratio. Further, we find that monetary policy should react to the housing market under both of the regimes, and regulatory authority should propose a counter-cyclical macro-prudential measure to stabilize the housing market and price.

关 键 词：抵押约束机制 宏观经济 房地产 市场调控 房地产价格 贷币政策 社会福利 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F832.45