加密探空资料在华东区域业务模式中的应用试验  

The application test of intensive radiosonde observations in the East China regional numerical model system

作　　者：徐同[1,2] 王晓峰[1,2] 张蕾[1,2] 杨玉华[1,2] 李佳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [2]中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,上海200030

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2016年第4期306-314,共9页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC21B02);上海市科学技术委员会重点基金(13231203300)

摘　　要：采用中国气象局2014年6月1日—30日14时加密探空资料,利用华东区域中尺度数值预报业务系统比较同化加密探空观测资料前后模式预报结果的差异。研究表明,同化加密探空资料后,对模式初始时刻不同高度的位势高度、比湿、温度、风速等变量均有一定的影响;对位势高度、温度和风场的影响在高层100—150 h Pa比较显著,而对比湿的影响主要体现在低层700—750 h Pa。同化加密探空资料后模式初始场更接近实况。批量数值试验的统计检验表明,同化加密探空观测资料后对强降水及形势场预报均有不同程度改进,24 h暴雨和大暴雨量级降水的预报技巧分别提高了2.5%和8.1%。One-month data assimilation experiments were conducted to examine the impact of assimilating the intensive radiosonde observations in the East China regional numerical model system. Results indicated that assimilating intensive radiosonde observations had influence on geopotential height, specific humidity, temperature and wind speed at different heights in the model initial time. The influence on geopotential height and wind speed is relatively significant at high-level from 100 h Pa to 150 h Pa. The influence on specific humidity is relatively significant at low level from 700 h Pa to 750 h Pa. The model initial field obtained from including intensive radiosonde observations was more close to the observed results. The statistical results showed that assimilation of intensive radiosonde observations improves the forecast accuracy for heavy rainfall forecast and synoptic field forecast in some extent. The threat scores of 24 h rainstorm and heavy rain forecast were improved about 2.5% and 8.1%, respectively.

关 键 词：加密探空观测 华东区域数值模式 同化试验 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]