沪渝高速(三岔口大桥)路面温度特征及模型研究  

Characteristics of road surface temperature of Sanchakou bridge and the study of its model

作　　者：舒斯 曾琦[2] 鲁静 谭静 何明琼 陈英英 成丹 王丽娟 

机构地区：[1]湖北省气象服务中心,武汉430205 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2016年第4期378-385,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：中国气象局华中区域气象中心科技发展基金项目资助(QY-Y-201406)

摘　　要：利用沪渝高速公路恩施-宜昌路段恩施附近的三岔口大桥(海拔708 m)自动站监测2013年6—8月(夏季)及2013年12月至2014年2月(冬季)逐日逐时次气象要素资料,统计分析夏季、冬季路面温度与气温的变化特征及路面温度与气象因子的关系,基于逐步引入因子线性回归分析方法建立路面温度统计模型,并对模型的预报效果进行实验研究。结果表明:夏季路面最高温度受多种气象要素的影响,与日最高气温、日平均气温、前一日路面最高温度、前一日路面平均温度呈正相关,与相对湿度、24 h累计降水呈负相关。冬季路面最低温度与最低气温呈显著性相关。通过模型的效果实验,发现夏季路面最高温度用日最高气温、日最小相对湿度及前一天物理量建立的模型预报结果与实况的变化趋势最为接近;冬季路面最低温度用日最低气温、日最小相对湿度、日平均风速及前一天物理量建立的模型预报结果与实况的变化趋势最为接近。Using the monitoring data from the automatic weather stations of Sanchakou bridge（altitude of 708 meters）near Enshi on Huyu freeway from June to August 2013（summer） and from December 2013 to February 2014（winter）,the variation of road surface and air temperatures on Sanchakou bridge were analyzed statistically, and the relationship between the maximum temperature in summer and the minimum temperature in winter of road surface and meteorological factors were studied. Then, prediction equations of the road surface temperature were established by using multiple regression analysis, and the accuracies of prediction were tested. Results showed that the maximum road surface temperature in summer was influenced by a variety of meteorological factors. The maximum road surface temperature had a positive correlation with the maximum and the mean road surface temperatures on the day before, and the maximum and the mean air temperature, while they had a negative correlation with relative humidity and rainfalls in 24 hours, and the correlation was the most significant with the maximum air temperature. The minimum road surface temperature in winter was significantly correlated with the minimum air temperature. Through the model experiment, the predicted maximum road surface temperature in summer is close to observations while using the forecast model with air temperature, relative humidity and the physical parameters of the previous day. The predicted minimum road surface temperature in winter is close to observations while using the forecast model with air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and the physical parameters of the previous day.

关 键 词：夏季路面最高温度 冬季路面最低温度 气象要素 相关分析 模型效果检验 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]