基于模式输出统计预报方法的云量精细化预报  

A study on detailed forecast of cloud cover by the model output statistics method

作　　者：赵文婧[1,2] 李文才[3] 赵中军[3] 尚可政[1] 王式功[1] 孔德兵[4] 宁贵财 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院 [2]甘肃省气象服务中心 [3]中国人民解放军92493部队中6分队 [4]中国人民解放军95606部队气象台

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第4期479-483,共5页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家公益性行业(气象)专项项目(GYHY201206004);甘肃省国际科技合作计划项目(1204WCGA016);中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(LZUJBKY-2013-M03)

摘　　要：通过对T639数值预报产品的释用,结合地面气象观测站资料,以环渤海地区兴城站为例,建立了云量的精细化预报模型.从云形成的基本条件出发,选取4类天气学意义明确的预报因子:水汽类、大气不稳定度类、大气上升运动类和天气系统强度类,以总云量、低云量为预报对象,通过逐步回归法建立兴城站逐月、逐时次的云量预报方程.结果表明,云量主要受水汽、大气上升运动和大气不稳定度影响.回代检验结果表明,总云量平均绝对误差为20%,低云量平均绝对误差为16%,低云量的预报方程预报效果更好;总云量夏半年预报准确率更高,低云量冬半年预报准确率更高,可为云量精细化预报提供参考.The article studied the modeling of total and low cloud cover by using the prediction products of T639 model and the data of a meteorological station at Xingcheng in the Bohai rim.According to the general conditions of the formation of cloud,physical quantity of water vapor,instability and rise of atmosphere and weather system were selected as forecast factors of cloud cover.The forecast equations of total and low cloud cover were built.A correlation analysis showed that cloud cover was mainly affected by water vapor,instability and rise of atmosphere.Back substitution results showed that the prediction equations of low cloud cover were better than those of total cloud cover.The average forecast error of total cloud cover was 20%while the low cloud cover was 16%.And the total cloud cover had higher forecast accuracy during summertime while the low cloud cover had higher forecast accuracy during wintertime.The results from the article can provide references for refined forecasting of cloud cover.

关 键 词：T639数值预报产品 模式输出统计预报方法 云量 预报 

分 类 号：P457.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]