岩溶生态脆弱区水安全动态模拟及其演变机制  

Development Simulation of Water Security and Its Evolvement Law in Karst Ecological Fragile Area

作　　者：苏印[1] 官冬杰[1] 苏维词[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学建筑与城市规划学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆400047 [3]贵州科学院山地资源研究所,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2016年第4期9-15,共7页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"三峡库区生态安全后续发展动态模拟及其可视化预警评价"(41201546);国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ25B09);重庆市自然科学基金项目(cstc2012jjA20010);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS14159)

摘　　要：[目的]揭示影响贵州省城市水安全的主要驱动因子,为贵州省相关部门提供参考和科学依据。[方法]基于系统动力学方法建立水安全系统模型,仿真模拟贵州省水安全系统的贵阳模式、遵义模式、毕节模式和协调型模式4种不同模式下的水资源子系统、水环境子系统、水灾害子系统的发展演变规律。[结果]农业灌溉用水定额、水土流失面积比、水质达标率和环境资本投资率是贵州省水安全系统的主要驱动因子;在协调型模式下,贵州省水安全系统在2025年以前处于最佳状态,比其他3种模式优越。[结论]在不同情景模式的模拟下,只有在协调型模式下水资源子系统、水环境子系统、水灾害子系统处于最佳状态,能够获得最大的经济效益和环境效益。[Objective] The impact factors of urban water security in Guizhou Province were studied to provide basis for policy-making of local government. [Methods] A water security system model for Guizhou Province, China was established using system dynamics（SD） method. In the model, data of water security system from 2005 to 2025 were used and four scenarios（Guiyang model, Zunyi model, Bijie model and concerted development model） were analyzed. [Results] The major driving factors of the water security system in Guizhou Province included the agricultural irrigation water quota, soil and water losses area, ratio up to the standard of water quality and the investment of environmental protection. The concerted development model is the best solution for water security system by 2025 in Guizhou Province for the four scenarios. [Conclusion] In terms of water resource, water environment and water disaster, the concerted development model was proved to be a profitable solution both in economy and environment.

关 键 词：水安全系统 系统动力学 情景参数 贵州省 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]