政府债务与经济增长:究竟谁影响谁?——国际视角的因果关系检验  

Government Debt and Economic Growth:Who Influence Whom Actually?——A Granger Causality Test From the International Perspective

作　　者：陈梦根[1] 尹德才[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院,北京100875

出　　处：《经济管理》2016年第9期1-17,共17页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"政府债务管理及风险预警机制研究"(14ZDA047);"中国实施国际比较项目(ICP)的技术难点与创新研究"(13AZD086);教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目"基于国际标准的政府债务统计与预警管理体系研究"(13YJA630005)

摘　　要：政府债务与经济增长关系一直是研究者和实际部门非常关注的问题,近年来频频爆发的经济与金融危机致使有关二者关系的争论更加激烈。本文采用最新的线性与非线性格兰杰因果检验方法,对金砖国家和部分OECD国家政府债务与经济增长关系进行实证分析,并从动态角度考察二者关系的变迁轨迹。研究表明,全样本期内,多数国家政府债务与经济增长并不存在显著的因果关系,特别是没有充分证据支持政府债务促进经济增长的判断。滚动窗口检验结果表明,多数国家政府债务与经济增长之间四种类型的因果关系均至少在一个子样本期内存在。从方向上看,经济增长到政府债务的因果关系相对略为明显,而且样本国二者因果关系呈现出非线性特征。可见,政府债务与经济增长之间因果关系具有明显的异质性,这种异质性不仅存在于不同国家之间,也存在于同一国家的不同时期。The relationship between government debt and economic growth is a very important issue in macroeconomic research, and recently, the frequent crises promote more highly dispute about it. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, many countries adopted the proaetive fiscal policy to stimulate the economy, and led to the rapid expansion of government debt. Especially the European sovereign debt crisis caused widespread concern about the problems of debt expansion and fiscal sustainability. How to reduce the scale of government debt and to ensure sustainable economic growth, has become one of the important policies of the governments. Under this background, exploring the relationship between government debt and economic growth is not only of great theo- retical value, but also has obvious practical significance. In practice, the relationship between government debt and economic growth is a hot topic for scholars and poli- cy-makers. Researchers summarized the related theories, which are mainly grouped into two categories. The one is the Ricardian equivalence theorem and namely the views from the perspective of the economic effect, which consid- ers that the government tax and loan are the equivalent financing activities because the current liabilities are the fu- ture tax. The other is usually named as the traditional view, which is the classical theory on the short-term and long-term effects. However, the empirical studies on the relationship between government debt and economic growth are far from being unanimous. Adopting the methodology of Granger causality tests, this paper intends to analyze the relationship between government debt and economic growth in the BRICS countries and some OECD countries, and explore its evolution. In this study, a wide international sample is employed and some relatively new linear and nonlinear Granger causal- ity test methods are introduced to explore the relationship between government debt and economic growth over time. Especially, the bootstrap method c

关 键 词：政府债务 经济增长 因果关系 国际比较 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]