入境旅游人数、收入与我国经济增长——基于混频Granger因果关系检验的实证研究  

Inbound Tourism Demand and Economic Growth in China——Empirical Study Based on the Mixed Frequency Granger Causality Tests

作　　者：刘汉[1,2] 宋海岩[2] 王永莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]香港理工大学酒店及旅游业管理学院

出　　处：《经济管理》2016年第9期149-160,共12页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"宏观经济预测与分析的混频定量研究"(15YJC790055);国家旅游局规划项目(面上项目)"旅游需求监测;预警与中长期趋势的混频实证研究"(15TABG023);中国博士后科学基金资助项目"中国经济周期波动分析与预测的混频计量研究"(2014M551161)

摘　　要：随着旅游产业规模的不断扩大,旅游业已经成为促进我国经济发展、减少贫困和缩小区域差距的重要手段,在全面建设小康社会中发挥着越来越重要的经济和社会功能。尤其是入境游,不仅可以带来外汇,创造就业机会,带动地方投资,还可以实现规模经济,产生知识技术的外溢效应。本文以我国入境游市场为研究对象,采用混频Granger因果关系检验的方法来研究入境旅游需求与经济增长之间的关联性。实证结果表明,采用入境旅游人数和入境旅游收入作为入境旅游需求的代理变量的实证结果存在一定的差异,其中,入境旅游人数增长在较短期促进经济增长的假说成立,入境旅游收入促进经济增长的假说无论是在短期,还是长期均不成立;而经济增长拉动入境旅游收入增长的假说得到证实,经济增长是入境旅游人数的Granger原因却并不显著。此外,时变混频Granger因果关系检验结果表明,入境旅游需求与经济增长之间的因果关系随着样本容量、经济发展阶段的不同而呈现显著的差异,但总体上来说,混频Granger因果关系检验的功效相对较高。Tourism development is one of the most important parts of the economic growth and it isone of the fastest-growing economic activities in the world. Tourism contributes to economic growth through the following direct and indirect channels. First, tourists＇ spending generates direct revenues to tourism-related businesses such as airlines, travel agents, hotels, shops, restaurants, and other tourist facilities. Secondly, the direct tourism revenues generate additional income for the firms that supply materials and services to the tourism characteristic businesses. Thirdly, the direct and indirect incomes will further radiate through all sectors of the destination generating the induced effects within the economy. According to World Travel and Tourism Council （WTTC）, the tourism sector di- rectly contributed USD2229. 8 billion （3.0% of total GDP） to global GDP and directly supported more than 107 million jobs （3.6% of total employment） in 2015. As we include the ＂wider impacts＂ （ie the indirect and induced impacts） of Travel ＆ Tourism on the economy, the total contribution to GDP was USD7170. 3 billion （9.8% of GDP） and total employment supported by the industry was 9. 5% of total employment, which is more than 283 million jobs in 2015. In terms of tourism economic benefits in China, the total contribution of the tourism sector to the GDP in China was CNY5366.4 billion （7.9% of GDP）, and the total contribution to employment was 8.4% of total employment （65 million jobs）. Tourism has been considered as a possible source of economic growth for many destinations by a number of studies. The ever increasing international arrivals and the income generated from tourism have contributed to job creation, poverty alleviation, environmental protection, and mutual understanding of different cultures across the globe. As the third largest country in the world, China has everything that a tourist destination can offer. The coun- try＇ s rich cultural and natural heritage, pristine mountains, e

关 键 词：入境游 经济增长 MF—VAR模型 因果关系检验 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]