中国政府储蓄率:新的测算及财政视角的分解  

China's Government Saving:New Estimation and Decomposition Analysis On a Fiscal Perspective

作　　者：汪德华[1] 李琼[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2016年第9期5-20,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：中国社科院基础研究学者资助计划"财税制度对经济发展的影响及相关问题"的阶段性成果;国家审计署"合作共建财经院"项目;国家社科基金重大项目"我国文化消费提升路径与机制研究"(编号:14ZDA052);清华大学财税研究所以及中南财经政法大学财政税务学院科研基金的资助

摘　　要：国家统计局资金流量表提供了一个研究政府储蓄问题的基本框架。但是,基于国民经济核算的政府储蓄和财政统计中的财政盈余(赤字)并不是一个概念,两者既有联系,又有区别。本文按照资金流量表的编制原理和财政分析的基本原理,通过对政府储蓄计算过程的分类、整合,构造了一个政府储蓄的财政视角分解框架,将政府储蓄问题与财税问题关联起来。在此基础上,本文将我国政府储蓄的各构成项与英国、德国、美国、日本和韩国作国际比较。研究结果表明,1998-2008年,中国的政府储蓄率已经从4.83%上升至11.98%;国际比较的结果表明,中国的高政府储蓄率的主要原因在于,扣除社保缴款后的宏观税负过高,政府消费占GDP比重偏低。除此之外,经常转移中的社会保险福利和社会补助支出不足也是导致我国政府储蓄率高于其他国家的重要原因。The Flow of Funds published by National Bureau of Statistics provides a basic framework to study government savings. However, fiscal surplus（deficit）based on business accounting is different from the concept of government savings, which is based on the national accounting, there are both differences and links between these two concepts. This paper based on both national accounting and business accounting, reclassified the detailed parts of government savings, to use the fiscal revenue and expenditure concepts, which we are more familiar with, to analyze China＇s government savings. Moreover, on the basis of constituent items of government savings, we compared China＇s government savings with the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, Japan and South Korea. Our research indicates that government saving rate in China has increased from 4.83 G in 1998 to 11.98 % in 2008 ; the international comparisons results show that, the main reasons for China＇s high government savings rate are low government consumption and high tax burden（exclude social insurance contributions）. In addition, low social security benefits and social assistance spending also provides a partial explanation.

关 键 词：政府储蓄率 分解框架 政府消费 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]