格点降水资料在中国东部夏季降水变率研究中的适用性  

Application of grid precipitation datasets in summer precipitation variability over East China

作　　者：姜贵祥 孙旭光[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学气候与全球变化研究院/中国气象局-南京大学气候预测研究联合实验室/大气科学学院,南京210023

出　　处：《气象科学》2016年第4期448-456,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2012CB417203);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41275069;41330420);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106017)

摘　　要：本文使用1951～2010年PREC、CRU、APHRO和GPCC 4种格点降水资料,通过比较其与中国756站点观测降水资料在中国东部（105°E以东）夏季降水变率中的差异,检验和评估了它们的可靠性和适用性。结果表明：中国东部夏季降水变率的前3个主要模态分别是以江淮流域、长江流域和华北与东北南部为核心的经向多中心分布,有明显的年际和年代际变率特征,且干旱特征较洪涝更明显;长江流域夏季降水异常的主周期为3～7 a和20～50 a,而江淮流域和华北地区夏季降水异常的主周期则为准2 a和准10 a。另外,长江与江淮流域和华南地区分别在1970s末和1990s初发生了显著的年代际转变;4种格点降水资料都能很好地再现中国东部夏季降水的时空变率特征,但由于GPCC格点降水资料是基于更多的基站观测和更精细复杂的质量控制方案得到的,因此它具有更高的可靠性。Based on the comparison of the difference in summer precipitation variability over East China（ east of 105°E） between the four kinds of grid precipitation datasets of PREC, CRU, APHRO and GPCC and observation precipitation data from 756 stations in China during 1951-2010, the reliability and capability of the above four datasetsare investigated and evaluated. Results show that the first three EOF modes of summer precipitation variability over East China is characterized by the meridional distributions with multiple variation centers in Jianghuai valley, Yangtze fiver valley, North China and southern Northeast China, respectively, which have obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities, and have more drought than flood. The major periods of precipitation in the Yangtze river valley are 3-7 years and 20-50 years, whereas periods of quasi-biennial and quasi-decade are dominant in both the Jianghuai val- ley and North China. Additionally, significant interdecadal precipitation changes occur in Yangtze-Jiang- huai valley around the late 1970s and in South China around the early 1990s. All the four kinds of grid precipitation datasets are capable of reproducing these variabilities of summer precipitation variability over East China, among which, GPCC is the best due to its more observational stations and more elaborate quality control schemes.

关 键 词：中国东部夏季降水 年际和年代际变率 格点降水资料 站点观测降水 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]