三维变分方法反演风场的效果检验  

Performance Evaluation of Three-Dimensional Variation Assimilation Retrieval of Wind Field

作　　者：王艳春[1,2] 王红艳[1] 刘黎平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]天津市气象台,天津300074

出　　处：《高原气象》2016年第4期1087-1101,共15页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局预报与网络司新技术集成推广专项(CMAGJ2013ZX-ZH1);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC22B00);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费(2011Y003);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002)

摘　　要：为研究三维变分方法反演风场的能力、在不同天气系统中的适用性以及在实际业务工作中的应用潜力,利用广州、深圳、海口、湛江、龙岩和厦门六部多普勒天气雷达构成三个双多普勒雷达系统,选取热带风暴、飑线和层状云降水三种不同类型的天气过程。以双多普勒雷达反演的风场为"真值",对风场三维结构进行了对比分析,并根据绝对误差、均方根误差和相关系数进行了定量的效果检验。结果表明,使用双雷达资料进行三维变分方法反演获得的风场结构与各类型天气的基本特征一致,能够较好地反演出飑线系统低层强对流区前缘阵风锋处的风场辐合以及热带风暴的气旋式环流。基于单部雷达资料和双雷达资料得到三维变分风场对比表明,使用单部雷达资料不能很好地表现强天气过程中的风场结构,对热带风暴的涡旋结构和飑线系统内部的辐合线结构的反演效果都较差,只有在风向沿雷达径向时才能得到较准确的风场结构;同时使用两部雷达资料进行风场反演,不仅降低了水平风向的反演误差,而且解决了单雷达反演风场时,雷达径向风分量反演结果较好、切向风分量反演结果较差的问题。误差分析结果表明水平风速和水平风向的反演结果都比较可靠,层状云降水的风场反演效果优于热带风暴和飑线系统的风场反演效果。In order to study the capacity,the applicability in different weather systems and the potential applications in business work of 3DVAR,three dual-Doppler radar systems corresponding three different weather systems as tropical storms,squall line and stratiform cloud precipitationare built by 6 Doppler weather radars which are Guangzhou radar,Shenzhen radar,Haikou radar,Zhanjiang radar,Longyan radar and Xiamen radar.The wind structure retrieved from dual-Doppler radar is used as‘the true value＇to evaluate the performance of3 DVAR from the wind structure,AE,RMSE and COR.The results show that the wind structures retrieved from3 DVAR while using two radars dovetail nicely with the basic characteristics of various types of weather and could reproduce the convergence line in the low levels in a squall line and cyclonic circulation in a tropical storm.By comparing the wind retrieved from 3DVAR using single radar＇s data and that using two radars＇ data,it is indicated that While using one radar,it could not show wind structures of severe weather systems well and the retrieval performance of convergence line in the squall line and cyclonic circulation in the tropical storm is both poor.It could not only greatly reduce the error of wind direction but also improve the quality of tangential wind while using two radars＇ data.The results of error analysis indicate that the retrieval performance of wind speed and wind direction is reliable.The retrieval performance of stratiform clouds precipitation is superior to that of squall line and tropical storm.

关 键 词：多普勒雷达 三维变分 风场反演 效果检验 

分 类 号：P412.25[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P425.1