基于目标免疫的疾病传播应急控制模型研究  

Epidemic Spreading and Emergency Controlling Model Based on Targeted Inoculations

作　　者：孙彩虹[1] 张博舒[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学信息学院,北京100872

出　　处：《管理评论》2016年第8期167-174,共8页Management Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(11YJCZH148)

摘　　要：本文利用多主体建模和社会网络理论构建了一个疾病传播与控制计算实验框架,并提出一个基于传播扩散力的疾病传播控制模型。在给定初始传染源的情景下,模拟疾病在网络上的传播过程,构建传染树,并提出一种基于传播扩散力的目标免疫算法。通过大量仿真实验发现,本文提出的目标免疫算法可针对传染源及其所处的网络位置和网络结构,识别出疾病传播中的关键路径和关键节点,及时有效地为疾病控制应急管理提供决策支持依据。We propose a model of spreading and control of epidemics based on multi-agent and a simulation platform by the method of muhi-agent modeling and theory of complex networks. As for the given source（s） of infection, we simulate the spreading process of epidemics in the network, according to which we build an epidemic tree and epidemics-spreading network based on SIR spreading model via a large number of computational experiments. Meanwhile, we put forward a targeted inoculation strategy by using epidemic diffusion power influence. We find that our proposed inoculation strategy can identify the critical paths and points applied to different sources, their locations in the network as well as the structure of network, which will provide decision support basis for epidemics control and emergency management.

关 键 词：应急管理 SIR传播模型 多主体建模 免疫算法 级联 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]